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The COT report is published by the CFTC on Friday about 15:30 CET. The data shows positions as of Tuesday’s close. Info below has been updated 10/15/2021 after market closure and contains the newest CoT report.
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Week to:
10/15/2021
Price change, % Trend Commercial Large Speculators Small Traders Open Interest Net Positions - Commercials 26-weeks Position Extremes Commercial COT Index
Long Change Short Change Long Change Short Change Long Change Short Change Value Change,% Net Change Change,% High Low
Indices
S&P5001.93%1 704 039-40 7881 837 206-4 524379 90110 170281 118-15 829262 461-957228 077-11 2222 403 163-1%-133 167-36 26437%-16 645-141 9457%
NASDAQ2.29%127 3025 152124 4267 72760 6711 90161 4896638 670-41540 728-1 155230 6152%2 876-2 575-47%34 449-9 16028%
RUSSELL1.50%353 1571 245315 62112 78763 9965 305112 702-4 60229 97482818 804-807451 9671%37 536-11 542-24%67 05510 47948%
DOW E-MINI1.65%49 5421 76652 6615 92732 1832 89336 4661 00118 4171 01111 015-1 258102 0406%-3 119-4 161-399%9 889-16 68651%
Bonds
30-YR T-BONDS1.17%908 174-18 858821 9264 881120 94213 753187 493-18 345167 921-3 453187 6184 9061 222 493-1%86 248-23 739-22%184 81346 50929%
10-YR T-BONDS-0.06%2 795 156-13 6192 631 99815 933883 62135 365727 57920 656300 68610 989619 886-3 8544 102 7141%163 158-29 552-15%304 49036 90547%
Currencies
DOLLAR INDEX-0.16%2 13125244 8234 12749 3944 67914 3321 6439 1085651 478-27462 83610%-42 692-3 87510%-1 495-42 6920%
EURO FX0.20%396 224-310405 177156202 5125 693220 9101 75788 733-1 83161 3821 639695 3290%-8 953-4665%-8 487-183 514100%
SWISS FRANC0.39%45 32769415 3643173 5601 28616 532-1 4218 435-61625 4262 46857 3412%29 9633771%29 963-8 396100%
BRITISH POUND0.92%98 512-7 38778 321-1 90246 794-1 34358 773-9 38224 778-90332 9901 651172 829-5%20 191-5 485-21%25 676-50 19093%
JAPANESE YEN-1.77%185 56010 40090 468-22935 8104 241112 44417 18120 7352 32939 19318243 6178%95 09210 62913%95 09254 268100%
CANADIAN DOLLAR0.92%66 8031 46555 0755 19222 3823 80250 2424 79637 2242 58521 092-2 136127 8276%11 728-3 727-24%18 854-82 48193%
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR1.52%146 176-5 32544 1761 36811 193-6 27898 801-8 64916 3451 87130 737-2 451177 932-6%102 000-6 693-6%108 693-20 56995%
NEW ZEALAND $ 2.09%12 586-1 00220 737-73720 4672 58011 7191 8883 646-564 24337137 3404%-8 151-2653%2 372-12 19528%
MEXICAN PESO1.88%90 2836 35752 5242 29174 129-2 945113 7631 1105 577373 70248171 7542%37 7594 06612%37 759-4 717100%
Energy
CRUDE OIL3.86%721 614-5 2151 175 2985 210564 00115 440159 2258 971105 2762 03556 368-1 9212 231 2270%-453 684-10 4252%-391 251-576 08466%
GASOLINE4.77%151 40616 092209 15915 00595 137-1 29847 9442 56125 0772 77214 5170331 4945%-57 7531 087-2%-37 040-74 14544%
HEATING OIL4.06%213 8084 853279 4523 61272 83366033 696-92949 8775323 3702 883429 908-2%-65 6441 241-2%-28 658-66 8853%
NATURAL GAS-3.28%582 327-28 376491 126-22 940272 106-17 156403 008-19 96265 6391 52825 938-1 1021 314 022-5%91 201-5 436-6%130 12827 30162%
Metals
GOLD0.62%110 697-3 532318 311380298 5032 564112 964-39343 819-19821 744-1 153484 3820%-207 614-3 9122%-190 151-250 86971%
SILVER2.93%43 055-51873 3471 99663 488-46945 501-2 07725 15182812 846-78139 4030%-30 292-2 5149%-27 778-74 36195%
PLATINUM2.88%16 942-2 69333 6983 66031 711-70320 792-6 1079 0387273 201-22259 344-4%-16 756-6 35361%-6 348-37 78467%
PALLADIUM0.41%4 815-5792 1903062 920915 416-6431 272671 401-849 296-4%2 625-885-25%3 614-3 86187%
COPPER10.32%74 878530100 7457 47983 8167 37961 335-68515 582-11012 1961 005194 8175%-25 867-6 94937%-13 610-63 74776%
Grains
SOYBEANS-1.93%441 82739 451451 49226 524134 258-3 28992 2686 12248 96470081 2894 216759 1016%-9 66512 927-57%-9 665-248 464100%
SOYBEAN MEAL-0.72%207 66711 640225 7237 54383 2872 83385 8747 88251 6964 04031 0533 088423 4316%-18 0564 097-18%-18 056-139 593100%
SOYBEAN OIL0.18%198 17210 895282 9748 472106 30427931 0062 81729 21655819 712443401 3843%-84 8022 423-3%-42 682-115 17842%
CORN-0.57%685 66715 364909 0031 107402 726-8 073123 4389 644130 3833 994186 3355341 400 3770%-223 33614 257-6%-191 326-494 16189%
WHEAT0.07%159 1315 189146 162-4 08594 728-1 47599 26210 37131 2961 08639 731-1 486385 2043%12 9699 274251%12 969-36 088100%
ROUGH RICE0.69%5 114-3016 115-1672 091281 579661 531601 042-1128 925-2%-1 001-13415%1 173-3 22951%
Softs
COTTON-2.96%102 6826 995226 731-2 241124 338-9 96912 947-7421 438678 780-592286 879-1%-124 0499 236-7%-69 480-133 28514%
COFFEE1.35%121 291-74195 0992 71285 27567316 190-1 84112 0173127 29440305 1410%-73 808-2 7864%-46 183-76 3188%
COCOA-5.33%115 118-1 674160 417-4 67678 546-67138 3253 10513 1718888 093114255 2271%-45 2993 002-6%-861-48 3016%
SUGAR-2.41%373 2771 271667 9512 810294 624-2 26048 436-1 07395 8327 19547 3464 469891 6720%-294 674-1 5391%-279 035-357 40680%
ORANGE JUICE-5.02%5 6371 3349 433-2173 319-1 1629841592 631-121 17021811 9403%-3 7961 551-29%-417-7 14950%
LUMBER5.56%601-491 147215479143193-35841118581321 99212%-546-26494%-3-78931%
Meats
LIVE CATTLE0.50%125 280-4 845161 1022 27791 5142 58648 725-6 35130 551-86137 518954282 249-3%-35 822-7 12225%-28 700-80 14186%
FEEDER CATTLE0.16%11 972-1 2097 360-29313 21836913 463-2 5067 081-1 10711 44885238 118-9%4 612-916-17%5 9001 75269%
LEAN HOGS-4.36%75 606-1 571129 749-4 576107 881-2 06636 337-18118 368-53935 769581251 516-2%-54 1433 005-5%-46 665-75 96274%
Other
BITCOIN16.24%68990134896 8441 2638 2701 1711 751-78808610 91823%55510%628-32192%
Source from CFTC. Release Schedule of COT report. Download Excel.
* Click on the futures symbols to draw the chart!

COT Report Online With Free Charts

What you need to know and how to use the information correctly

 

You can find an explanation of the COT report in this video.

What is the “COT Report” and what exactly does it tell us? How do we evaluate it and how do we use COT data for our trading preparation? This article will give you the answers to those questions.

What is the Commitments of Traders (COT) report?

The Commitments of Traders (COT) report is an exchange report that is published weekly by the American Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The CFTC was created by the US Congress as an independent authority in 1974.

It has the mandate to regulate the commodity and options markets in the United States. Through this oversight, the CFTC ensures that the futures markets perform two important functions: pricing in the commodities sector and reducing price risk in the futures and options market.

The report presents the US futures as transparent financial instruments and thereby creates fair competitive conditions for all large and small traders on the futures markets.

It is usually published at market close (at 21:30 CET) on a Friday on the CFTC website and presents the positions of the market participants subject to reporting requirements. These positions are reported by brokers to the CFTC for analysis and verification. The data refers to the market situation at market close on Tuesday of the relevant trading week.

 

What information does the report offer?

Firstly, one thing must be clarified: There is no ONE COT report. Instead, there are a number of different formats that have evolved over time since the beginning of reporting. They also highlight special areas of the futures markets, such as the Traders in Financial Futures report (TFF), which covers traders in financial futures contracts such as currencies, US Treasury securities, Eurodollars, stocks, VIX or the Bloomberg Commodity Index.

In this article, I will deal exclusively with the Legacy Report, the report originally broken down by exchange and, specifically, we will regard the “Futures Only” report, not the “Futures and Options Combined” report.

After downloading the current report from the website of the CFTC, you will see the following picture. (click on the graphics to zoom)

The long and short positions of the three groups of market participants can be seen (note: a special feature is the “spreads” value of the group of non-commercials, which we are not interested in at the moment). The report also shows the total open interest in this market.

 Fig. 1: CFTC Commitments of Traders Short Report - CBT (Futures Only)

Fig. 1: CFTC Commitments of Traders Short Report – CBT (Futures Only)

 
COT Report Online With Free Charts -06.11.2019- COT Report Online With Free Charts -06.11.2019-

What groups of market participants can we find in the COT report?

There are two major groups of market participants active in the market: commercials and non-commercials. Non-commercials are also known as large speculators. These two groups are the reporting agent traders, known as reportables. The third group, the non-reportables (often referred to as small speculators or small traders) is calculated by subtracting the total number of long or short positions in the reportables from the total open interest.

Commercials aka the hedgers

The term “commercials” refers to market participants who operate on the futures markets primarily for hedging purposes. Another term for commercials is hedgers. They are typically manufacturing or processing companies that wish to hedge against price fluctuations on the futures market in order to avoid dependence on commodity prices. Commercials do not speculate. They want to protect themselves by opening positions against price expectations.

A commercial produces a product and therefore has a larger stock of the product, or needs the product for his business. Commercials could be, for example, large agricultural cooperatives or multinational production companies (Nestle, Procter & Gamble, etc.)

Non-commercials aka the large speculators

The non-commercials are different. These are the market participants who conduct speculative transactions on a large scale. Typically, this would be the institutional traders, hedge funds or large investment banks, all of whose positions exceed the limit of the reporting obligation.

Non-reportables aka the small fish

The figures for non-reportables are calculated by deducting the totals of the reportables from the total value of open interest. Non-reportables are those market participants who are not subject to reporting requirements, in other words, they are “small traders like you and me”. However, they could also be trading companies (small banks, trading houses), which do not exceed the defined limits on traded contracts.

 

How do we use the report for our trading?

The report is analyzed for the net positions

We use the COT report as a source of basic information for our actions. However, in the form in which it is available from the CFTC site, it is not very helpful. Compare it to Figure 1, where the raw data must first be evaluated. Let’s take a look at the net positions of the commercials.

The result comes from the difference between the long and short positions of the report. From the example above, we can see:

Net position = 113,175 – 128,957 = – 15,782

which means 15,782 contracts net short

We then present these net values graphically in order to get an overview of the development, and especially the changes of the positions.

Significance of the net positions in terms of the commercial index

After calculating the net positions, we are already one step further, but have not yet reached our goal. The net position itself does not tell us anything about how the commercials have actually positioned themselves. If we only know that the commercials are 15,782 contracts short this week, that does not help us much.

How should this figure be interpreted? Are the commercials now extremely short or are they actually in their normal short range?

We need an indicator that lets us evaluate this figure. And we get it by relating the current position to the positions over a certain period. So, we calculate an index that allows us to evaluate the current position as a percentage:

We calculate the commercial index (as a fixed period, we are looking at three years here):

Fig. 2: COT Commercial index as a formula

Fig. 2: COT Commercial index as a formula

With the help of this calculation, we now have some informative value of the current net position, which serves as the basis for our trading.

 

Why do we pay so much attention to the commercials?

Commercials produce commodities and supply the world market with them. Or they need the commodities in large quantities for their business. The existence of these people depends on the commodities, and of course on the commodity prices. Because of their direct link to commodities, the commercials will predict future price developments much earlier than other participants in the market – and hedge against them.

Commercials usually trade counter cyclically. Their positions allow an inference to be drawn about the expected market movement. This data does not serve as a timing instrument, however!

In other words: Just because the commercials are now moving extremely short does NOT mean that we’re going to go short tomorrow. But it is an indication of a market situation that tends to change. It is now advisable to analyze this market and watch it closely, because there may be movement here soon, which we can then use to our advantage.

A specific example: Soybeans 12/2018 – 11/2019

You can see the price on the soybeans market and the net positions of the three groups of participants (weekly chart). Look at the net positions of the commercials (red line) and the soya beans price at points A and B and the subsequent price development.

Soybeans — Chart with COT-Graph
 

COT report: the basis for further analysis

The COT report is not a timing instrument. It shows us markets in which the trend remains stable OR where there could be a change in trend. But it does not give us clear information as to *WHEN* an entry into the market should take place.

We can find this information by analyzing the market in which a COT signal has arisen over a different time period. We can now switch to the daily chart and examine the trend with the help of various indicators in order to determine a concrete entry point.

How do we analyze the daily chart? And how do we determine the right time to enter the market?

Find the answers here: