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The COT report is published by the CFTC on Friday about 15:30 CET. The data shows positions as of Tuesday’s close. Info below has been updated 01/21/2022 after market closure and contains the newest CoT report.
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Week to:
01/21/2022
Price change, % Trend Commercial Large Speculators Small Traders Open Interest Net Positions - Commercials 26-weeks Position Extremes Commercial COT Index
Long Change Short Change Long Change Short Change Long Change Short Change Value Change,% Net Change Change,% High Low
Indices
S&P500-6.06%1 558 090-13 1011 746 59441 547408 37018 643283 141-29 180292 05611 743228 7814 9182 309 9821%-188 504-54 64841%-81 404-203 53712%
NASDAQ-7.72%101 2042 229130 8878 90788 59312 51858 3873 58341 20216941 7252 426235 8107%-29 683-6 67829%34 449-34 2037%
RUSSELL-8.26%346 8956 019342 183-4 05484 6282 41699 27411 67630 5211 00420 5871 817467 6402%4 71210 073-188%67 055-5 36114%
DOW E-MINI-4.86%51 7647 17446 9251 97124 624-7 77934 968-23816 6731 50311 168-83594 7012%4 8395 203-1 429%9 889-12 25177%
Bonds
30-YR T-BONDS0.40%891 36417 521831 32727 156133 654-14 203181 150-31 745169 177-275181 7187 6321 219 3560%60 037-9 635-14%109 987-10 65459%
10-YR T-BONDS0.12%3 008 53544 2762 469 871108 230461 29047 828732 732-24 569307 390-8 175574 6122683 890 0372%538 664-63 954-11%626 23736 90585%
Currencies
DOLLAR INDEX0.59%1 684-5744 081-1 80642 369-3 5035 935-2 0458 180-2162 2177553 283-7%-42 3971 749-4%-22 254-44 71710%
EURO FX-0.63%389 617426440 08117 500211 9017 540187 317-11 03979 656-33753 7761 168691 8821%-50 464-17 07451%-8 487-79 84941%
SWISS FRANC0.24%26 828-1 06913 029731925-3 64611 735-49611 9511 82714 940-3 12339 871-7%13 799-1 800-12%33 353-98443%
BRITISH POUND-0.91%114 486-30 064111 6385 12039 7609 25440 007-19 66526 2673 42128 868-2 844183 234-9%2 848-35 184-93%71 124-13 66019%
JAPANESE YEN0.49%173 701-16 00773 961-7 3558 002-14 36288 881-21 00817 475-15636 336-2 162201 820-14%99 740-8 652-8%128 54666 59454%
CANADIAN DOLLAR-0.26%58 921-64872 64415 07149 7925 50842 300-9 36031 27056325 039-288143 3713%-13 723-15 719-788%18 854-27 44130%
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR-0.49%148 978-1 39750 4593 6939 051-3 33297 505-6 36419 00860229 073-1 456181 136-2%98 519-5 090-5%108 69351 43782%
NEW ZEALAND $ -1.38%29 8762 22619 2541 90811 61265219 9433792 851-1285 14246344 7276%10 6223183%10 622-16 625100%
MEXICAN PESO-0.82%69 9422 76977 43211 49775 46122 26770 54112 8965 901-4003 331243151 77819%-7 490-8 728-705%65 233-7 4900%
Energy
CRUDE OIL0.66%759 82533 5291 186 87763 641503 17818 808117 397-6 468102 68911 33561 4186 4992 059 5645%-427 052-30 1128%-369 956-487 88952%
GASOLINE0.76%179 28714 364246 55216 074105 9594 29845 1703 01122 8082 35916 3321 936365 5658%-67 265-1 7103%-42 699-70 45311%
HEATING OIL1.78%185 7644 592225 6995 04359 7633 87644 9364 92451 2794 01026 1712 511367 6863%-39 935-4511%-20 481-66 88558%
NATURAL GAS-11.28%485 729833399 5559 795237 85116 455355 89811 93856 4054 07724 532-3681 169 1883%86 174-8 962-9%130 12886 1740%
Metals
GOLD1.03%132 76416 472353 83212 467290 52842696 3215 95646 978-1 34520 117-2 870539 204-1%-221 0684 005-2%-190 151-287 53968%
SILVER5.89%50 3313 88091 8718 06065 985-20836 285-2 36024 7631 06012 923-968148 7373%-41 540-4 18011%-27 778-66 14864%
PLATINUM6.51%19 007-1 22131 91873827 304-44720 075-2 3878 945-1403 263-15957 321-3%-12 911-1 95918%-6 348-28 22570%
PALLADIUM11.44%5 3231451 914282 682-225 9913091 2751331 375-819 3723%3 4091174%4 125-1 98488%
COPPER2.02%79 4553 638109 99311 63577 6733 86555 363-1 73918 9431 46610 715-927203 1987%-30 538-7 99735%-9 777-46 20843%
Grains
SOYBEANS3.30%363 53612 537455 734-161179 661-2 06151 6468 19646 718-2 39082 53551692 0222%-92 19812 698-12%9 085-112 33117%
SOYBEAN MEAL-2.98%191 8787 684299 851-7 177109 188-8 55928 2957 72251 5823 91124 5022 491411 1232%-107 97314 861-12%-18 056-123 39415%
SOYBEAN OIL7.64%199 0194 273259 1195 23296 4281 33344 925-25332 509-2923 912598392 7952%-60 100-9592%-39 280-103 58568%
CORN3.34%688 6002 4841 031 287-21 662476 449-14 87988 3114 475138 491-208183 9424 5841 487 858-1%-342 68724 146-7%-191 326-411 79331%
WHEAT4.81%155 1442 146149 9849 097106 7636 348101 9234230 3391 09740 339452378 4563%5 160-6 951-57%18 180-36 08876%
ROUGH RICE1.64%4 3294085 669-2891 393-4769761421 623-123700-447 352-3%-1 340697-34%1 104-2 57734%
Softs
COTTON0.88%84 4702 153192 7303 944108 4462 80613 3201 50221 0027767 868289248 4332%-108 260-1 7912%-97 906-133 28571%
COFFEE-0.98%112 761-7 316179 698-3 97375 9314 05612 14744010 4283567 275629264 3940%-66 937-3 3435%-57 615-73 80842%
COCOA-3.32%116 402-3 678147 2238 70763 4703 27235 256-10 00912 024-2389 417658241 7494%-30 821-12 38567%7 799-48 30131%
SUGAR3.22%480 30212 966607 3555 528192 577-18 76979 409-9 01274 979-1 00761 094-3 326882 5980%-127 0537 438-6%-127 053-357 406100%
ORANGE JUICE4.87%4 692-609 5027954 3356251 21142 68497998-13712 0286%-4 810-85522%-126-7 14933%
LUMBER-12.50%769731 35272806783150908-117816-382 5432%-58310%-183-6076%
Meats
LIVE CATTLE0.28%126 6084 816184 6865 579111 5092 08247 94734035 421-1 10140 905-122328 6522%-58 078-7631%-28 700-80 14143%
FEEDER CATTLE-1.71%13 31481711 0022315 585-39310 6074327 35933314 64930244 8823%2 31279452%6 0631 51817%
LEAN HOGS17.53%83 9934 157116 8762 10181 054-2 14532 74920416 970-54632 392-839223 2774%-32 8832 056-6%-28 767-71 14390%
Other
BITCOIN-15.24%3558377-1528 4173928 9665641 407-34836-4611 4686%-22160-88%729-32128%
VIX FUTURES25.69%152 5106 57896 63112 55754 172-9 642101 066-15 88521 295-44130 280-177307 106-1%55 879-5 979-10%109 53040 24723%
Source from CFTC. Release Schedule of COT report. Download Excel. Download PDF.
* Click on the futures symbols to draw the chart!

COT Report Online With Free Charts

What you need to know and how to use the information correctly

 

You can find an explanation of the COT report in this video.

What is the “COT Report” and what exactly does it tell us? How do we evaluate it and how do we use COT data for our trading preparation? This article will give you the answers to those questions.

What is the Commitments of Traders (COT) report?

The Commitments of Traders (COT) report is an exchange report that is published weekly by the American Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The CFTC was created by the US Congress as an independent authority in 1974.

It has the mandate to regulate the commodity and options markets in the United States. Through this oversight, the CFTC ensures that the futures markets perform two important functions: pricing in the commodities sector and reducing price risk in the futures and options market.

The report presents the US futures as transparent financial instruments and thereby creates fair competitive conditions for all large and small traders on the futures markets.

It is usually published at market close (at 21:30 CET) on a Friday on the CFTC website and presents the positions of the market participants subject to reporting requirements. These positions are reported by brokers to the CFTC for analysis and verification. The data refers to the market situation at market close on Tuesday of the relevant trading week.

 

What information does the report offer?

Firstly, one thing must be clarified: There is no ONE COT report. Instead, there are a number of different formats that have evolved over time since the beginning of reporting. They also highlight special areas of the futures markets, such as the Traders in Financial Futures report (TFF), which covers traders in financial futures contracts such as currencies, US Treasury securities, Eurodollars, stocks, VIX or the Bloomberg Commodity Index.

In this article, I will deal exclusively with the Legacy Report, the report originally broken down by exchange and, specifically, we will regard the “Futures Only” report, not the “Futures and Options Combined” report.

After downloading the current report from the website of the CFTC, you will see the following picture. (click on the graphics to zoom)

The long and short positions of the three groups of market participants can be seen (note: a special feature is the “spreads” value of the group of non-commercials, which we are not interested in at the moment). The report also shows the total open interest in this market.

 Fig. 1: CFTC Commitments of Traders Short Report - CBT (Futures Only)

Fig. 1: CFTC Commitments of Traders Short Report – CBT (Futures Only)

 
COT Report Online With Free Charts -06.11.2019- COT Report Online With Free Charts -06.11.2019-

What groups of market participants can we find in the COT report?

There are two major groups of market participants active in the market: commercials and non-commercials. Non-commercials are also known as large speculators. These two groups are the reporting agent traders, known as reportables. The third group, the non-reportables (often referred to as small speculators or small traders) is calculated by subtracting the total number of long or short positions in the reportables from the total open interest.

Commercials aka the hedgers

The term “commercials” refers to market participants who operate on the futures markets primarily for hedging purposes. Another term for commercials is hedgers. They are typically manufacturing or processing companies that wish to hedge against price fluctuations on the futures market in order to avoid dependence on commodity prices. Commercials do not speculate. They want to protect themselves by opening positions against price expectations.

A commercial produces a product and therefore has a larger stock of the product, or needs the product for his business. Commercials could be, for example, large agricultural cooperatives or multinational production companies (Nestle, Procter & Gamble, etc.)

Non-commercials aka the large speculators

The non-commercials are different. These are the market participants who conduct speculative transactions on a large scale. Typically, this would be the institutional traders, hedge funds or large investment banks, all of whose positions exceed the limit of the reporting obligation.

Non-reportables aka the small fish

The figures for non-reportables are calculated by deducting the totals of the reportables from the total value of open interest. Non-reportables are those market participants who are not subject to reporting requirements, in other words, they are “small traders like you and me”. However, they could also be trading companies (small banks, trading houses), which do not exceed the defined limits on traded contracts.

 

How do we use the report for our trading?

The report is analyzed for the net positions

We use the COT report as a source of basic information for our actions. However, in the form in which it is available from the CFTC site, it is not very helpful. Compare it to Figure 1, where the raw data must first be evaluated. Let’s take a look at the net positions of the commercials.

The result comes from the difference between the long and short positions of the report. From the example above, we can see:

Net position = 113,175 – 128,957 = – 15,782

which means 15,782 contracts net short

We then present these net values graphically in order to get an overview of the development, and especially the changes of the positions.

Significance of the net positions in terms of the commercial index

After calculating the net positions, we are already one step further, but have not yet reached our goal. The net position itself does not tell us anything about how the commercials have actually positioned themselves. If we only know that the commercials are 15,782 contracts short this week, that does not help us much.

How should this figure be interpreted? Are the commercials now extremely short or are they actually in their normal short range?

We need an indicator that lets us evaluate this figure. And we get it by relating the current position to the positions over a certain period. So, we calculate an index that allows us to evaluate the current position as a percentage:

We calculate the commercial index (as a fixed period, we are looking at three years here):

Fig. 2: COT Commercial index as a formula

Fig. 2: COT Commercial index as a formula

With the help of this calculation, we now have some informative value of the current net position, which serves as the basis for our trading.

 

Why do we pay so much attention to the commercials?

Commercials produce commodities and supply the world market with them. Or they need the commodities in large quantities for their business. The existence of these people depends on the commodities, and of course on the commodity prices. Because of their direct link to commodities, the commercials will predict future price developments much earlier than other participants in the market – and hedge against them.

Commercials usually trade counter cyclically. Their positions allow an inference to be drawn about the expected market movement. This data does not serve as a timing instrument, however!

In other words: Just because the commercials are now moving extremely short does NOT mean that we’re going to go short tomorrow. But it is an indication of a market situation that tends to change. It is now advisable to analyze this market and watch it closely, because there may be movement here soon, which we can then use to our advantage.

A specific example: Soybeans 12/2018 – 11/2019

You can see the price on the soybeans market and the net positions of the three groups of participants (weekly chart). Look at the net positions of the commercials (red line) and the soya beans price at points A and B and the subsequent price development.

Soybeans — Chart with COT-Graph
 

COT report: the basis for further analysis

The COT report is not a timing instrument. It shows us markets in which the trend remains stable OR where there could be a change in trend. But it does not give us clear information as to *WHEN* an entry into the market should take place.

We can find this information by analyzing the market in which a COT signal has arisen over a different time period. We can now switch to the daily chart and examine the trend with the help of various indicators in order to determine a concrete entry point.

How do we analyze the daily chart? And how do we determine the right time to enter the market?

Find the answers here: