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CURRENT COT DATA FROM THE COMMITMENT OF TRADERS REPORT

The COT report is published by the CFTC on Friday about 15:30 CET. The data shows positions as of Tuesday’s close. Info below has been updated 04/13/2021 after market closure and contains the newest CoT report.
* Click on the futures symbols to draw the chart!
Week to:
04/13/2021
Price change, % Trend Commercial Large Speculators Small Traders Open Interest Net Positions - Commercials 26-weeks Position Extremes Commercial COT Index
Long Change Short Change Long Change Short Change Long Change Short Change Value Change,% Net Change Change,% High Low
Indices
S&P5001.42%1 931 53222 5601 974 70919 414349 3287 706389 4242 459312 375-3 675229 1024 7182 643 6421%-43 1773 146-7%112 096-115 42632%
NASDAQ1.54%116 412-2 606106 040-24859 2941 85565 405-1 43035 51344239 7741 369214 3020%10 372-2 358-19%29 796-34 94870%
RUSSELL0%371 929-10 151361 302-9 75357 922-2479 383-2 96130 083-58619 2491 953461 538-2%10 627-398-4%11 025-54 76599%
DOW E-MINI1.22%41 181-3 14239 032-1 15727 07243138 459-23721 14584411 907-47392 143-2%2 149-1 985-48%19 950-12 02044%
Bonds
30-YR T-BONDS0.80%907 628-13 290742 963-9 79178 9356 213196 9445 728158 3903 509205 0464951 171 7330%164 665-3 499-2%250 696160 1735%
10-YR T-BONDS0.40%2 837 43915 9632 604 235-89 231689 720-42 967692 37244 244308 644-5 303539 19612 6803 896 946-1%233 204105 19482%278 002-103 56988%
Currencies
DOLLAR INDEX-0.68%1 934-77910 863-8126 679-1 02720 726-2 5316 3171383 34194439 1650%-8 929-6988%15 292-9 5012%
EURO FX0.66%361 3806 979471 0146 872190 640-1 590123 789-91988 707-98645 924-1 550648 6811%-109 6341070%-109 634-222 378100%
SWISS FRANC0.44%19 4264568 79561112 965-2 72512 141-3049 9091 06121 364-1 51542 423-3%10 631-155-1%10 786-21 808100%
BRITISH POUND1.07%57 154-2 56097 2007 35952 8517 58127 2611 94237 2222 26222 766-2 018148 7856%-40 046-9 91933%18 416-48 17012%
JAPANESE YEN0.79%119 2161 37040 4461 13727 68288885 9941 21117 761-1 14638 219-1 236165 4311%78 7702330%80 881-73 11799%
CANADIAN DOLLAR0.16%71 821492100 166-58448 05655045 65083444 104-1 62518 165-833166 1860%-28 3451 076-4%7 119-47 10035%
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR1.54%45 4331 12558 979-82364 0311 04060 2721 34729 110-28519 3231 356139 6332%-13 5461 948-13%2 256-22 59636%
NEW ZEALAND $ 1.59%12 26253016 93527719 72752817 2071 1465 2291023 076-26338 4353%-4 673253-5%-4 673-19 724100%
MEXICAN PESO1.20%72 0742 14463 9703 09463 3875 77775 3654 6136 683-4022 809-188143 6195%8 104-950-10%28 026-35 22669%
Energy
CRUDE OIL6.29%805 80121 6481 350 4892 862643 807-5 430151 12913 617106 3553 58554 3453 3242 301 831-2%-544 68818 786-3%-467 558-594 63139%
GASOLINE0%184 6877 237237 100-92592 222-7 50150 188-21524 96989414 5901 770376 4282%-52 4138 162-13%-39 234-100 39778%
HEATING OIL4.56%197 028-7 042227 255-3 82264 0151 68251 313-1 72842 846-26525 321-75407 3420%-30 227-3 22012%-6 453-40 80631%
NATURAL GAS6.62%512 768-22 900481 778-22 391250 4273 173301 7032 86655 83681535 5506131 193 666-2%30 990-509-2%31 499-97 039100%
Metals
GOLD1.90%100 2272 031309 015-3 980269 513-6 19088 6392 44548 1731 87220 259-752460 733-1%-208 7886 011-3%-193 726-320 92388%
SILVER0%51 5052 090107 0077 00769 4292 18433 005-1 92530 0071 11410 929306164 0666%-55 502-4 91710%-45 161-77 51468%
PLATINUM-0.18%12 1842 10446 450-4 61137 890-5 73113 2582 38511 5599391 925-46265 661-4%-34 2666 715-16%-13 986-45 20935%
PALLADIUM5.09%3 2282766 7784155 4731122 620-2031 567-4587013110 9264%-3 550-1394%-892-4 44725%
COPPER2.95%72 903767121 517-4 248104 129-5 85668 1341 15923 5131 26710 894-733236 602-3%-48 6145 015-9%-48 614-86 522100%
Grains
SOYBEANS2.14%398 3853 977614 434-3 984270 077-6 85746 0592 92870 0083 27577 9771 451885 4362%-216 0497 961-4%-196 006-279 75176%
SOYBEAN MEAL1.22%202 391-1 120302 116-16 57399 727-3 28224 06610 51052 772-71728 708944415 4550%-99 72515 453-13%-99 725-145 009100%
SOYBEAN OIL2.61%238 1954 269350 2643 414134 332-2 35239 229-2 75244 419-79027 453465502 3021%-112 069855-1%-112 069-159 547100%
CORN1.87%800 7866 4091 295 4739 134619 84611 35776 5604 223149 7664 483198 3658 8921 793 0782%-494 687-2 7251%-269 498-505 0164%
WHEAT2.54%166 23614 539160 2299 360121 146631115 6306 31931 30086942 823360436 4316%6 0075 179625%8 423-29 32494%
ROUGH RICE-1.60%5 096747 348-382 383-231 258-31 728-10601829 2980%-2 252112-5%-2 252-4 214100%
Softs
COTTON3.19%93 873-239174 334-2 42283 368-2 45410 988-44615 973-717 892104222 564-3%-80 4612 183-3%-69 968-110 05574%
COFFEE3.58%140 721-2 628180 63187465 557-2 07730 697-5 03312 8336107 78364279 699-3%-39 910-3 50210%-29 680-67 69573%
COCOA2.59%80 899-8 223114 178-4 92059 0992 73929 847-1 14111 7831987 756775195 1583%-33 279-3 30311%-10 277-50 95643%
SUGAR7.18%579 23610 736821 82925 000245 1083 54553 491-5 06799 6331 98248 657-3 6701 052 8391%-242 593-14 2646%-228 329-359 52089%
ORANGE JUICE4.16%6 4672686 541-1673 148-1143 3411483 2861393 01931213 0041%-74435-85%622-4 01185%
LUMBER15.06%1 089162 050-133560-117130-1151 156-276251202 814-6%-961149-13%-770-1 23859%
Meats
LIVE CATTLE-2.85%118 684-4 454198 936-6 901133 829-42243 5261 95830 503-2 64640 554-2 579338 260-2%-80 2522 447-3%-19 671-82 6994%
FEEDER CATTLE-4.34%14 507-34310 140-42319 040-89412 187-1946 21860517 438-1545 535-2%4 367802%6 6003 60226%
LEAN HOGS-6.68%86 420734165 5164 652123 4461 80438 239-1 19627 17727833 288-640295 9432%-79 096-3 9185%-18 171-79 0960%
Source from CFTC. Release Schedule of COT report. Download Excel.
* Click on the futures symbols to draw the chart!

COT Report Online With Free Charts

What you need to know and how to use the information correctly

 
COT Report Online With Free Charts -06.11.2019-

What is the “COT Report” and what exactly does it tell us? How do we evaluate it and how do we use COT data for our trading preparation? This article will give you the answers to those questions.

What is the Commitments of Traders (COT) report?

The Commitments of Traders (COT) report is an exchange report that is published weekly by the American Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The CFTC was created by the US Congress as an independent authority in 1974.

It has the mandate to regulate the commodity and options markets in the United States. Through this oversight, the CFTC ensures that the futures markets perform two important functions: pricing in the commodities sector and reducing price risk in the futures and options market.

The report presents the US futures as transparent financial instruments and thereby creates fair competitive conditions for all large and small traders on the futures markets.

It is usually published at market close (at 21:30 CET) on a Friday on the CFTC website and presents the positions of the market participants subject to reporting requirements. These positions are reported by brokers to the CFTC for analysis and verification. The data refers to the market situation at market close on Tuesday of the relevant trading week.

 

What information does the report offer?

Firstly, one thing must be clarified: There is no ONE COT report. Instead, there are a number of different formats that have evolved over time since the beginning of reporting. They also highlight special areas of the futures markets, such as the Traders in Financial Futures report (TFF), which covers traders in financial futures contracts such as currencies, US Treasury securities, Eurodollars, stocks, VIX or the Bloomberg Commodity Index.

In this article, I will deal exclusively with the Legacy Report, the report originally broken down by exchange and, specifically, we will regard the “Futures Only” report, not the “Futures and Options Combined” report.

A more detailed list and explanation of the individual reports can be found here (in German): Formate des COT-Reports I – Überblick

After downloading the current report from the website of the CFTC, you will see the following picture. (click on the graphics to zoom)

The long and short positions of the three groups of market participants can be seen (note: a special feature is the “spreads” value of the group of non-commercials, which we are not interested in at the moment). The report also shows the total open interest in this market.

 Fig. 1: CFTC Commitments of Traders Short Report - CBT (Futures Only)

Fig. 1: CFTC Commitments of Traders Short Report – CBT (Futures Only)

 
COT Report Online With Free Charts -06.11.2019- COT Report Online With Free Charts -06.11.2019-

What groups of market participants can we find in the COT report?

There are two major groups of market participants active in the market: commercials and non-commercials. Non-commercials are also known as large speculators. These two groups are the reporting agent traders, known as reportables. The third group, the non-reportables (often referred to as small speculators or small traders) is calculated by subtracting the total number of long or short positions in the reportables from the total open interest.

Commercials aka the hedgers

The term “commercials” refers to market participants who operate on the futures markets primarily for hedging purposes. Another term for commercials is hedgers. They are typically manufacturing or processing companies that wish to hedge against price fluctuations on the futures market in order to avoid dependence on commodity prices. Commercials do not speculate. They want to protect themselves by opening positions against price expectations.

A commercial produces a product and therefore has a larger stock of the product, or needs the product for his business. Commercials could be, for example, large agricultural cooperatives or multinational production companies (Nestle, Procter & Gamble, etc.)

Non-commercials aka the large speculators

The non-commercials are different. These are the market participants who conduct speculative transactions on a large scale. Typically, this would be the institutional traders, hedge funds or large investment banks, all of whose positions exceed the limit of the reporting obligation.

Non-reportables aka the small fish

The figures for non-reportables are calculated by deducting the totals of the reportables from the total value of open interest. Non-reportables are those market participants who are not subject to reporting requirements, in other words, they are “small traders like you and me”. However, they could also be trading companies (small banks, trading houses), which do not exceed the defined limits on traded contracts.

 

How do we use the report for our trading?

The report is analyzed for the net positions

We use the COT report as a source of basic information for our actions. However, in the form in which it is available from the CFTC site, it is not very helpful. Compare it to Figure 1, where the raw data must first be evaluated. Let’s take a look at the net positions of the commercials.

The result comes from the difference between the long and short positions of the report. From the example above, we can see:

Net position = 113,175 – 128,957 = – 15,782

which means 15,782 contracts net short

We then present these net values graphically in order to get an overview of the development, and especially the changes of the positions.

Significance of the net positions in terms of the commercial index

After calculating the net positions, we are already one step further, but have not yet reached our goal. The net position itself does not tell us anything about how the commercials have actually positioned themselves. If we only know that the commercials are 15,782 contracts short this week, that does not help us much.

How should this figure be interpreted? Are the commercials now extremely short or are they actually in their normal short range?

We need an indicator that lets us evaluate this figure. And we get it by relating the current position to the positions over a certain period. So, we calculate an index that allows us to evaluate the current position as a percentage:

We calculate the commercial index (as a fixed period, we are looking at three years here):

Fig. 2: COT Commercial index as a formula

Fig. 2: COT Commercial index as a formula

With the help of this calculation, we now have some informative value of the current net position, which serves as the basis for our trading.

 

Why do we pay so much attention to the commercials?

Commercials produce commodities and supply the world market with them. Or they need the commodities in large quantities for their business. The existence of these people depends on the commodities, and of course on the commodity prices. Because of their direct link to commodities, the commercials will predict future price developments much earlier than other participants in the market – and hedge against them.

Commercials usually trade counter cyclically. Their positions allow an inference to be drawn about the expected market movement. This data does not serve as a timing instrument, however!

In other words: Just because the commercials are now moving extremely short does NOT mean that we’re going to go short tomorrow. But it is an indication of a market situation that tends to change. It is now advisable to analyze this market and watch it closely, because there may be movement here soon, which we can then use to our advantage.

A specific example: Soybeans 12/2018 – 11/2019

You can see the price on the soybeans market and the net positions of the three groups of participants (weekly chart). Look at the net positions of the commercials (red line) and the soya beans price at points A and B and the subsequent price development.

Soybeans — Chart with COT-Graph
 

COT report: the basis for further analysis

The COT report is not a timing instrument. It shows us markets in which the trend remains stable OR where there could be a change in trend. But it does not give us clear information as to *WHEN* an entry into the market should take place.

We can find this information by analyzing the market in which a COT signal has arisen over a different time period. We can now switch to the daily chart and examine the trend with the help of various indicators in order to determine a concrete entry point.

How do we analyze the daily chart? And how do we determine the right time to enter the market?

Find the answers here: