Trading results W 49-19

by Michael Chechnev | Dec 8, 2019 | Trading week results

Hello Traders and Insiders,

I suggest to start with the news about the World Cup Championship of Futures Trading®.

We are in 3rd place in the 2019 World Cup Championship of Futures Trading®. Until the end of the championship there is still time to achieve 1st place and become the best traders of 2019. We already took 3rd place at the 2017 World Cup Championship of Futures Trading®.


Last week we made some profit, but there is also an open position with a potential loss. Let’s analyze in details the last trading week.

Profit, $:
Mexican Peso, 5,700.

Loss, $:
no losses.

Open positions at the end of week are:
Natural Gas, short position – 1 contract (small account);
Soybean Oil, short position – 34 contracts.


Let’s consider last trading week’s deals in details.

NATURAL GAS (open position) – small account

SetUp to sell for Natural Gas was formed in the weekly trading plan W47.
Last week we wrote that for Natural Gas the current week will be corrective and inside week. This is when neither low nor high doesn’t rewrite last week. Such weeks often happen after significant drops and growths. This is exactly what happened this week. The week was inside week.



We expect the next week to be downward. There are several factors for it. One of which is a seasonal trend, which is directed by downward.


Another factor is statistic. The TDOM model tells us about favorable days for Natural Gas in short position. Next week is 6-10 trading days in this month.


We see that the supply and demand indicators are making new lows as well. On Monday and Tuesday a good decline down may begin.



So tomorrow we are planning to change the value of stop loss. We think that we can move the position to breakeven. This is necessary to reduce risks if there will be any significant upward movements. We plan to keep the position until 12/16. This is an important point in seasonality.
In addition, we will check the fundamental data on Natural Gas via the COT report, when we will analyze and forming weekly plans.


MEXICAN PESO (closed position)

Setup for sell was on week 47th as well.



We had sold 38 contracts. On Monday 12/02 we closed the position. The reason for the early exit from the position is that we noticed that almost all commodity currencies began to rise in price, and the dollar began to weaken. Mexican Peso at that time was the weakest among commodity currencies. It was logical to assume that Mexican Peso would quickly work out its weakness. Now we see that on Thursday and Friday it began to quickly catch up with other commodity currencies.
So, at the beginning of the week, we decided to leave the position and take a small profit. The idea was correct and now we see that Mexican Peso is growing. We earned $5,700.



On the small account the similar decision was made. We have profit $150 here.



On the daily chart, we see that there is a strong bullish accumulation. Price can make new heights. We think that currencies should be avoided for trading now and we should watch them from the side.


SOYBEAN OIL (open position)

SetUp to sell for Soybean Oil was formed in the weekly trading plan W47.
On the weekly chart, we see that here a flat is formed with a large upward movement. The trend is up.



On Friday there was an increase of more than 2% not in our direction. Thursday closed with a reversal bar and it did not show that such a significant increase is possible on Friday. We believed that the downward movement would continue, so we did not move the stop loss closer to the market. Last week’s move was like a correction, not a significant change in the price structure.



WASDE reports will release on Tuesday, December 10th. Perhaps this is the movement before the report published. It is also possible that this movement follows the commodity market, as CRB makes new heights.

We think that here it will be necessary to reduce part of our position. In the evening we’ll talk about what is better to do here.
On the daily chart, we see that the accumulation is bullish. This is against us and tells us that the upward movement may continue.



However, the indicator of supply and demand globally remains bearish, it does not make new heights. In other words, there is the chance that the price will go down on Monday.



If we look at the price increase since September, we see that the price has been growing very unevenly. It is possible that it will also fall down. This may give us the opportunity to close the position via breakeven on Soybean oil.
We will analyze in details our strategy in Soybean oil when forming a weekly plan for next week.

INDEX CRB

Index made a new high. We see the next week as rising. We will look for long positions of commodities.


To sum up the trading week:
Mexican Peso Profit $ 5,700;
no losses.
Total profit $ 5,700

That’s all we wanted to say in week 49.
Next, we are moving to planning trading week 50.

These detailed trading plans are published for members in our Insider Week community. Join us now!

Trade smart, Insider Week team

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