Trading results W 46-19

by Michael Chechnev | Nov 17, 2019 | Trading week results

Hi team,

We have the fourth profitable week in a row! The setups and technical entries into deals have been improving every day. As well the market itself contributes to this.
Let’s see how we traded in the week 46.

Profit, $:
Canadian dollar, 4,725;
Corn, 2,475;
Coffee, 2,400;
Sugar, 0.

Loss, $:
Natural Gas, -2,159.

Open positions at the end of week are:
Corn, long position – 10;
Sugar, long position – 14.

Let’s consider last trading week’s deals in details.

Firstly, this is our map of COT-Setups for week 45th.

Canadian dollar (closed position)
SetUp to sell for Canadian dollar was formed in the weekly trading plan W45. On the weekly chart it was clear that resistance is somewhere close to our Setups. Open interest was growing. At the same time, it grew more than in our previous setup, after which there was a lot of movement. This fact also told us about a possible decline. In addition Canadian dollar’s seasonal trend is down till end of November.
We entered to the positon via pattern MA18. Target price was 0.7325.
(Trade Navigator has issue with some charts. Hope it will be fixed tommorow.)

But we had to close the position earlier, because at the end of last week we saw the high chances for rising prices in the energy sector. There was consolidation. The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency and they are correlated. And so it has happened. On Friday there was an impulse up in the Energy Sector. Thus, the chances of a Canadian dollar’s correction remain in the market.
So, profit $4,725 in Canadian dollar was fixed last week.

Our strategy for this instrument is the following: if there is changes in the price structure and risk is suitable, then we will sell for correction. The range for the fall in seasonality is up to 11/22.

S&P E-mini (closed position)
SetUp to buy for S&P500 was published in the weekly trading plan W44.

This is deal on our small account. We started this year with $11,747. Now the account is equal to $17,128. Here we try to take only trend deals.
For S&P500 we waited 3103. This price has reached this level on Friday. We fixed the profit $1,968 on the small account.

Here the price is stronger than the seasonal factor. We plan to buy all rollbacks that will be in the index next week. And we plan to keep these open positions until December. Most likely there will be such kickbacks. So, leave S&P500 in our watch list and carefully observe the index.
Let me remind you that we also traded this Setup in our Pro account. More details can be found here.

Natural Gas (closed position)
SetUp to buy for Natural gas was published in the weekly trading plan W43.

For the past two weeks, gas has gone with gaps. This is due to the release of weather forecasts. Gas is always highly dependent on them. Therefore, when we enter a trade in gas, we place a stop loss on larger value in chart (but without breaking management risk) to prevent the closure of positions due to volatility.

So, we bought Natural Gas because we had setup, operators were buying as well. COT index was to buy, there was an increase in the lows. The seasonal factor contributed to the price increase. That’s interesting that the price increase was achieved by operators. All other market participants were in a short position.
Position was opened via pattern MA18.

A part of the profit was fixed in the week 45. Last week we closed the second part of position manually with loss $2,159. Stop loss for this part was placed below 11/01 – 1 tick. This position would have been closed anyway. Overall profit for this NG setup is $1,966. Gas is very difficult instrument.

We see that the price is on a seasonal factor. It will be possible to search for points to re-enter a long position next week. We will analyze Natural Gas in more details on our weekly plans.

Coffee (closed position)
SetUp to buy for Coffee was published in the weekly trading plan W44.

This is the second part of Coffee’s position. The first part was closed previous week. Profit of this trade is $2,400.

Current week is inside week. The price is in a flat. And we see two bearish signs:
1. Accumulation;
2. Indicator of supply and demand. Price is down, but indicator is up.

Our vision is that there will be a correction to MA18 and after the growth will continue. If accumulation is bullish and situation in supply and demand is changed in the opposite way, then we will find point of entry for a long position next week.

Corn (open position)
There was a setup for wheat. We compared corn with wheat. Corn was weaker and we wanted to trade it as short position.

Part of position has been closed with profit $2,475. 10 contracts in corn are still opened.
Earlier position’s closure was performed partially due to risk of reversal, the price was in the flat a long time. But on Friday Corn’s price opened the way down.

Position is being kept either until the end of the month or up to 353. The accumulation is bearish, there is all chances to reach our targets.

Sugar (open position)
This is the new setup to buy and this is the third setup in a row. Our relationship with sugar does not add up. There were two deals and both were closed with a loss.

We entered the last deal according to the external day with closing up pattern. In the middle of the week, part of the position was closed at breakeven to reduce risks, at the same time the CRB index decreased significantly. We are keeping 14 contracts now.

Here the price is stronger than the seasonal factor and the price rises. The momentum is bullish, there is nothing bearish here. We need to wait. In December strong seasonality starts up, there is chances to growth. We are keeping the position.

CRB index
We see the next week as uncertain in Commodities. If the price re-writes the weekly height of W46, then there will be an increase with a high degree of probability.

To sum up the trading week:
Canadian dollar Profit $ 4,725
Corn Profit $ 2,475
Coffee Profit $ 2,400
Natural Gas Loss $ 2,159
Total profit $ 7,411

We will make all decisions on the setups and strategies for the next week while preparing the W47 trading plan.

These detailed trading plans are published for members in our Insider Week community. Join us now!

Trade smart, Insider Week team

Our Trading Performance  HERE

Our COT-Trading Service