Trading results W 45-19

by Michael Chechnev | Nov 9, 2019 | Trading week results

Hello Traders!

We did it! Last week was the most profitable in the history of our trade. This week is closed with a profit of more than 40,000 $. And this is 10% increase of our account! I consider this our victory and an excellent achievement of our COT strategy and strong risk management, discipline and our own approach to the trading.

Let’s analyze last week.

Profit, $:
Coffee, 19,687
S&P E-mini, 15,525;
Crude Oil, 787;
Natural Gas, 4,125.
Loss, $:
no losses.

Open positions at the end of week are:
Coffee, long position – 9;
Natural Gas, long position – 10;
Canadian dollar, short position – 15;
Corn, short position – 21.



Firstly, this is our map of COT-Setups for week 44th.



Canadian dollar (open position)
This is new setup. Here the resistance level is clearly visible at 0.7668. According to COT reports, we see that commercial reopened short positions last week. The seasonal factor confirms that the Canadian dollar has a high chance of further decline.



We recently bought Canadian dollar. The deal was profitable.

Now we are aiming to make money in short position. The current position is open using the MA18 pattern. By seasonality, we see the probability of the decline to 11/22. There is also a target price of 0.73875. We will decide of stop loss moving tomorrow when analyzing the COT report of 11/05 and during planning the week 46.






S&P E-mini (closed position)
SetUp to buy for S&P500 was published in the weekly trading plan W44.



In Pro account, we closed the position a little earlier than our target 3,100. We closed it due to the seasonal factor. Profit is $15,252.
We still hold on the small account. Friday was the inside day and this does not carry any information about the further strategy, so we do not take inside days into account in our trading. We believe that there will be a correction and further upward movement will continue. Most likely, during the correction, we will go into a long SP500 position on the PRO account once again.





Crude Oil (closed position)
It’s really difficult to trade it. We see that it stands in the flat the whole year.
Setup to buy was on week 44th. The first attempt of the trading was unsuccessful. Now we closed the deal with profit $787, but in general, the trade for this setup has been unsuccessful.



Now we have decided to focus on Canadian dollar, it correlates with crude oil, but the picture is more clear now.

On the daily chart we see that according to seasonality, crude oil should go down. In fact, it’s going up. The accumulation is bearish. That is why the crude oil can turn around and go down at any moment. This is in line with our Canadian dollar strategy.


Natural Gas (open position)
SetUp to buy for Natural gas was published in the weekly trading plan W43.
Upon entering the transaction, we opened 21 micro-contracts. QG was opened as a test of this new option. The liquidity of QG allows us to do this. Other mini-contracts, unfortunately, were not so good and in order to support the project of mini-contract in general. I am sure that this option will give new opportunities to traders with small accounts.



So immediately after the opening, part of the position was closed due to the large gap at the opening. Very often after such gaps the price comes back. We earned $4,125.

Now we see that the players are trying to close this gap. So our approach was correct. Stop loss is placed below 11/01 – 1 tick. If the height of Tuesday is rewritten next week, we will move our stop loss closer to the opening price. In general, according to seasonality we can keep the deal up to 25/11.
There is the correction now, after the movement may continue as well.

There is also a pattern for recruiting a position. Tomorrow we will analyze in details in our plans the possible entry into the gas deal.





Corn (open position)
There was a setup for wheat. We compared corn with wheat. Corn was the weaker and we wanted to trade it as short position.



At the current moment, we see that the idea is being realized. Friday was very volatile. This is the reason we place stops far enough from the market. This is necessary to do in order the deals are not closed by stop loss due to volatility.

Keep the position. Let’s see how the price will move. According to the seasonal factor, there is still a range for movement. The accumulation is bearish. Everything looks bearish and target 353 looks quite real.





Coffee (open position)
SetUp to buy for Coffee was published in the weekly trading plan W44.



There are three weeks of good growth. We keep the position. Part of position was closed, because there were three good days of growth, and on Friday, as a rule it was a correction day.

And so it happened. At first there was a growth, but in the end it was closed down. Profit is $19,687. If the correction continues and there will be an entry pattern, we will restore the position volume.



In an open position, we are switching on to a new contract as the current contract expiration is soon.

In general, the picture of coffee is bullish. The accumulation is bullish. By ADX there is range to grow. Our target price has been already closed.


Index CRB
There are new heights and there are no new lows. There is a high chance that the index will grow. If the lows decline on the weekly horizon, than there will be either a correction or a downward turn again.



Our portfolio is now well diversified. Most positions are open as long. One position on the commodity market is short. While index low are not re-written, most positions are held for increase.

To sum up the trading week:
S&P E-mini, porift, $15,525;
Coffee, porift, $19,687;
Crude Oil, porift, $787;
Natural Gas, porift, $4,125.
Total profit $ 40,124

Tommorow we will plan for the upcoming week and consider new setups.

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