summing up the results of the week we would like to start with an answer to a frequently asked question. Subscribers often ask if it is possible to use our COT-map to trade according to their own strategy.
Yes, sure. Our COT-map can be used as the basis for a trading strategy. This map is the result of the deep fundamental analysis. Every week we analyze historical data to find the setup. Also we use the seasonality factor, analyze cycles and take into account market sentiment to search for the potential trading instruments. Thus, traders can use our COT-map as a basis for their own trading strategy and their own entry points. Hot markets have already been found.
Now let’s analyze the last trading week.
Canadian dollar, 2,820;
British pound, 49;
Crude Oil, 2,575.
Open positions at the end of week are:
SP500, long – 6;
British Pound, long – 1 (small account);
Coffee, long – 9;
Crude Oil mini, long – 3;
Natural Gas mini, long – 25.
As we can see, the week was very eventful on deals. All our positions are open to buy. Last week’s forecast on the growth of the CRB index has been realized and commodity markets have been growing.
Firstly, this is our map of COT-Setups for week 44th.
Cotton (closed position)
SetUp to buy for Cotton was published in the weekly trading plan W41. This week we closed the second part of the position. The entry was using the MA18 pattern immediately after the setup was formed in the week 41st. After closing the second part profit of the trade amounted to $ 4,125. The total profit for this trade and setup is $ 9,050. link.
Now there is a very strong open interest on the chart. This open interest is greater than on the last setup to sell after which a significant downward movement followed. Also, taking into account the direction of the COT index, most likely there is a reversal of the trend. If today, after analyzing the COT data, a setup to sell is formed, then we will look for entry points on Monday and Tuesday. According to the seasonal factor, there will be a good downward movement as well.
Canadian dollar (closed position)
Setup to buy was for New Zealand dollar. We compared it with other instruments of the currency sector and chose Canadian dollar, so at the time of the trade it was the strongest. Entry to the deal was via the trend catcher pattern.
To exit the trade, we used the short-term pattern Inside Day with a close up. With a growing trend, this is usually a reversal bar. And so it happened. Profit from closing this deal was $ 2,820. Since this is the second part of the deal, the total profit from the trade is $ 5.205. link.
If there is a setup to sell, then we will sell the instrument. There will also be a good seasonal historical downward movement until early December. Today later on the plans, we will analyze the instrument in more details.
On the main account, we left the position because there were risks of loss in the crude oil trade. We closed this deal with a small profit of $ 49. In our small account, we keep the position. We plan to hold the position until 11/05. There is a height of seasonal factor. This factor is now strong for GBP. Please look at how the price goes around the seasonal trend (green line). The ADX indicator also suggests that the trend will end soon. Let’s check picture of market on Monday. We would like to see the rewrite of the heights and the passage of the resistance level. But here we need to be ready 11/05 to close the deal for the British pound.
S&P E-mini (open position)
Setup to buy was on week 44th. This is the new setup. The index makes the new height. We think that stop loss should be moved already below the low of Thursday. We think that we will see 3100.
Also here we are interested in the timing of exit from the deal 11/07. This one is also peak in seasonality. Here we will carefully look at other indicators, since if the index accelerates, then it has a long trend and seasonality may not be so significant.
Crude Oil (open position)
SetUp to buy for Crude Oil was published in the weekly trading plan W44.
We are in a deal with the mini contract. Friday pleasantly surprised us, since we were not so optimistic about our position on Crude Oil. We wrote about this in our daily comments. Loss this week is $2,575.
Now there are chances that our deal will close profitably. We will see how the market is held on Monday. We will also check COT reports and analyze the deal on weekly plans.
Natural Gas (open position)
Setup to buy was on week 43th. COT index has not been discharged yet. We believe that the upward movement will continue. The price is seasonal. If the price overwrites the heights in the coming days, then the stop loss will be moved below the Friday low. In general, we keep the position and wait for 11/25. We would like to see Natural gas in the area of the price of 3.100.
To sum up the trading week:
Canadian dollar, profit 2,820;
British pound, profit 49;
Cotton, profit 4,125;
Crude Oil, loss 2,575.
Total profit $ 4,419
Today we will plan for the upcoming week and consider new setups.
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