Today is Sunday, October 20th and we are summing up the trading week results.
Open positions at the end of week are:
Cotton, long position – 10;
Silver, short position – 4.
Let’s consider last trading week’s deals in details.
Firstly, this is our map of COT-Setups for week 42nd.
Sugar (closed position)
Setup to buy was on week 40th. Net positions of operators and hedgers are held in the buy zone. We see that the COT index is not discharged in any way. In other words, Commercial continue to be in a long sugar position. In addition to this, seasonality indicates an increase in prices. But we see that the last two weeks have been downward. If in the past two weeks we were confident in the increase in sugar prices, now uncertainty is emerging.
There was a second attempt to buy sugar last week. The second attempt was also unsuccessful. We lost $ 4,256.
Here we can clearly see the differences in seasonality. When the price was supposed to increase in seasonality, the instrument went for a correction. Interestingly, the supply and demand indicator is now very bullish. We believe that there will be an upward movement on sugar in the near future.
We will see the result of the trading session on Monday and will decide when to entry a long position.
Silver (open position)
SetUp to sell for Silver was published in the weekly trading plan W37.
We see a good upward movement. It can be assumed that what is happening with silver is a pullback. With a high degree of probability, the upward movement will continue. Here it is not very similar to a trend change, because often this flat leads to continued growth. This sidewall we have been seeing for three weeks. Another argument in favor of rising metals is the weakening dollar.
We are already the second week in the deal. We waited for the completion of the correction. The correction has passed, but the price is not going down. Accumulation also does not suggest anything good.
In this regard, we decided to close the silver position through breakeven. It didn’t work out on Friday, it was an inside day. There are chances to get out through the breakeven. Seasonality in the next 2-3 days is reduced.
Crude Oil (closed position)
Setup to sell was for Heating Oil.
We compared it to other instruments in the energy sector. At the time of comparison, the weakest was crude oil. We sold it. Cride oil also did not move. The trade is closed at breakeven. Price did not go down by seasonality. Though momentum was bearish. But if we look at the indicator of supply and demand, we can see that it has become bullish. At the time of entering the deal, he was bearish. Now it makes sense to think about buying crude oil.
Cotton (open position)
Setup to buy was on week 41st.
There are already two setups in a row. This may be a global trend reversal. Seasonality before the end of the year suggests good growth. The COT index has not been discharged yet. We think the cotton movement will continue. Keep the position.
Stop loss is not yet move due to price has not new high. Next, we plan to move the stop loss on a 3-bar system. The first target price is 67.15. Also near the peak seasonality. ADX is also approaching the overbought zone. We plan to completely close the deal to achieve the goal. We assume that we will still buy cotton after some rollback.
The index went up. This is good for the product market. We assume that metals and energy will grow. Next week may be trending. We plan to look for instruments to buy.
To sum up the trading week:
Sugar Loss $ 4,256
Total loss $ 4,256
Today we will plan for the upcoming week and consider new setups.
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