Trading results W 41-19

by Michael Chechnev | Oct 21, 2019 | Trading week results

Hello Traders,

Let’s summarize trading week 41.

Profit, $:
10-YR T-NOTES, 4,688;
Crude Oil, 1,800.

Loss, $:
Sugar, 3,203;

Open positions at end of the week are:
Cotton, long position – 10;
Silver, short position – 4.

Let’s consider last trading week’s deals in details.

30-YR T-BONDS (closed position)
Setup to buy was on week 30th. According to the net positions of the operators, the instrument continues to be in the buy zone. The current movement may be a temporary correction and next week we will see growth.

We entered into the 10-yr T-bonds deal, as this instrument looked weaker in terms of price structure and the risks were less.

At the beginning of the week we closed the position. Profit was $ 4,688. Total T-bond trading profit is $ 8,157. The instrument went on short-term seasonality.

If T-bonds are fixed in the area in which they are now, then we will look for entry points for a long position and short-term patterns.
On the long-term horizon for 10-yr T-bonds, the situation is similar in seasonality. Here is close to the low as well. Please note that for net positions of operators, the price is in the short zone. We talked about this in the past trading week results.

Sugar – buy.
SetUp to buy for Sugar was published in the weekly trading plan W40.
Net positions of Commercial continue to be in the buy zone. Movement may begin soon. Plus, the price is in a strong seasonal factor.

The first entry into the sugar trade was unsuccessful. We have the stop loss and the loss of $ 3,203. Now we have another stop-order. We are waiting for an impulse to re-enter the trade.
By the way, here is an interesting situation. Look at the net positions of large players (green line) and small players (gray line). They are all in a short position, but the price does not go far. The number of long positions of hedgers is increasing. There might be a shot next week on sugar.

Silver (open position)
Setup to sell was on week 37th.
Operator positions are not discharged. But we see that the price is in the flat. If we do not see a downward movement at the beginning of the week, then risks will need to be reduced. Gold went down on Friday, while silver lags behind. According to seasonality on Monday, a decline should begin. The bearish moment also tells us that a decline is possible.
So, we are waiting for Monday. Then the risks can be reduced and stop loss put on high Wednesday.

Heating Oil – sell.
Setup to sell was on week 40th.
For heating oil at the moment, only seasonality tells us about the down movement. Net positions of operators in the buy zone. This is a bullish signal.

Crude Oil (closed position).
For crude oil the same picture. There are bullish signals. Price went on short-term seasonality. We had a short position. It was closed by stop loss. The profit was $ 1,800. We will analyze the further possible behavior of crude oil when planning for the next trading week.

Cotton (open position)
SetUp to buy for Cotton was published in the weekly trading plan W31.
The COT index continues to be in the buy zone. Growth may continue. Also, the price is in the seasonal factor. This can increase the price movement.

On Friday there was a good up movement 4%. All week we waited for the impulse and on Friday it happened. This is an impulse deal with standard risk.
There are all bullish signals. The accumulation is bullish, the momentum is bullish, seasonality is present. The price has every chance to reach the target of 76.17.

In the open position, the stop doesn’t move. To confirm the beginning of the movement, the price should rewrite the high. After that, we will move the stop loss below the low of Tuesday.

That is all of our trading W41.

To sum up the trading week:
10-YR T-NOTES Profit $ 4,688
Crude Oil Profit $ 1,800
Sugar Loss $ 3,203
Total profit $ 3,285

Trade smart,
Insider Week team

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