Today is Sunday, September 29th and we are summing up the trading week results.
Natural Gas, 3,760.
Open positions at the current moment are:
Australian dollar, short position – 8;
Cocoa, long position – 3.
Let’s consider last trading week’s deals in details.
Firstly, this is our map of COT-Setups for week 39th.
Cocoa (open position)
Setup to buy was on week 37th.
If you look at the COT index, then the price has not been discharged at this increase. Upward movement may continue. We assume that price can make new highs. However, the seasonal factor suggests that there may be a decline. Starting Monday, the downward movement will begin. We need to be careful, and look what will be stronger – the price or the seasonal factor.
At the moment, the price is stronger. There is a high probability that there will be a new high and the price will reach the peak where our last setup to sell was.
If in the near future there is some correction, then we will consider the option to buy several more lots of cocoa in short-term.
We continue to keep the cocoa’s open position. Let me remind that this is the second part of the position. We closed the first part with the profit of $ 17,000 (Trading week 38).
On Friday there was the new high, so we moved the open position stop loss to the short-term low. We plan to leave this trade according to the previously designated target price.
Natural Gas (closed position)
SetUp to buy for Natural Gas was published in the weekly trading plan W33.
We had the idea to buy natural gas at the pullback. At the time of trade opening, the seasonal trend was moving up as well. Now we see that in the short term the price hasn’t followed the seasonal trend. Entering the natural gas deal was unsuccessful last week. The loss was $3,760. We tried once again to entry a long position, placed another order, but the price did not reach our level, the order did not open. Now the market itself suggests that the current downward movement is a trend reversal.
What’s next? The price goes down in medium-term seasonality. We need to wait for the setup to sell. Now there are no divergences here. We keep natural gas on our watch list and observe the market. There is no point in buying it.
Australian dollar (open position)
SetUp to sell for Australian dollar was published in the weekly trading plan W39. This is the new setup. Setup is on the trend, it is important.
In seasonality there is the good range for the decline. Entry to the deal was on the short-term pattern.
Now the position is hold. The trend is not very developing, but we will wait. We plan to leave either by target price or by seasonal factor.
We want to note that at the moment we are doing statistical analytics on our patterns. Let me remind that they are divided into impulse patterns and corrective ones. Analytics shows the optimal holding period of the position for each market.
Now we show specifically for the Australian dollar, where we went on the «trend catcher». The most optimal period of stay in such a deal is 9-10 days. If we count for this trade, then this will be October, 3-4th. That is why, until October, the 3rd, we can be in the deal and wait for a decline.
Similar analytics will be prepared for all traded instruments.
These are just statistics. We think that it will allow us to understand which instruments, which types of deals are better to take – impulse or correction. And roughly estimate how much we need to be in the deal for greater profitability.
We see signs of the flat movement. We think that in the next few weeks we will have sideways movement here. Then move down. The weakest at the moment are the metals. We will focus on them next week – gold, silver, platinum.
To sum up the trading week:
Natural Gas Loss $ 3,760
Total loss $ 3,760
Today we will plan for the upcoming week and consider new setups.
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