Today is Sunday, August 25th and we are summing up the trading week results.
S&P E-mini, 2,975;
Crude Oil, 1,560.
Open positions at the current moment are:
10-YR T-NOTES, long position – 1;
Soybeans, short position – 7.
Let’s consider last trading week’s deals in details.
10-YR T-NOTES (open position)
SetUp for Treasury Bonds was published in the weekly trading plan W31. When entering the deal, we chose the instrument between 30 and 10-year Treasury bonds. Due to the risk for the deal in 30 year treasury bonds was too high, we entered the position on 10 year treasury bonds.
We have already done the trade on this setup and fixed profit of $4,187 (click). We left part of the position open in order to fully trade this trend. So, the position is now open with the volume of 1 lot. Stop Loss is placed below 08/08.
We believe that the upward movement may continue, as prices are well stood. We think that next week we will see the new highs in Treasury Bonds. This upward movement is likely to be before 09/03.
After this date, a deep correction is possible. This is evidenced by seasonality and the ADX indicator, which is now close to 60. If there are buying patterns, as well as deals with interesting risk/reward ratio at the beginning of the week, we plan to restore the position according to our risk management.
It should also be noted that at the end of September there is again the possibility of the significant movement in seasonality. If there is a Treasury Bonds Setup, then we will be in a deal again.
S&P E-mini (closed position)
Let me remind you that we had Setups for NASDAQ and Dow Jones. For our trade we chose S&P, because it was the weakest at that time. The first trade was unsuccessful and we closed this deal through stop loss (click).
We closed the second deal manually, as we were embarrassed by the bullish accumulation and the proximity of seasonality. We wrote about it in details for our members.
Interestingly, if we hadn’t closed the deal, the price would not have reached our stop loss and now the deal would still be open and profitable.
We can’t say that closing the position was the mistake, because many factors spoke for growth. The loss from this trade amounted to $2,975.
Now looking for a point to sell is useless, because on Friday there was the 3% decline and the risks at entering the deal will be huge. 08/28 is the end of the seasonal downward movement as well.
Most likely, we will look for entry points into the long position. For this, we need the formation of Setup to buy. We will consider the further strategy in more details in the weekly plans.
Soybeans (open position)
SetUp for Soybeans was published in the weekly trading plan W28.
We have already been in the short position on soybeans. Then we earned $8,775. Last Monday, we again managed to entry the short position. Entrance was based on pattern Outside day.
The whole previous week, the price was in the range and on Friday the movement began.
Here we see high chances that the price will reach our target price. At the moment, it is 812.2.
If we pay attention to seasonality, we see that the price is weaker than the seasonal factor. Where, according to seasonality, the price was supposed to go down, it just stood up and only now went down.
Accumulation makes new lows. This is the bearish signal. Here it is possible that 08/28 the price will accelerate the fall. We hold the position.
Crude Oil (closed position)
Crude oil buy setup was on the 34th week. In our group, we wrote that this setup is very controversial.
First of all, it’s because of the CRB index. We will consider it in more details at the end. Here we say that it is declining. Crude oil was interesting as it traded with the Premium. It is now saved. The price may return up, but now our trade has closed by stop loss. The price did not reach the target. We fixed the loss $ 1,560 here.
We will not consider patterns for the buy of crude oil in the near future. We will look for markets that can be sold.
Notice how the CRB index falls. It is possible that it will reach 350 and make a new low.
Therefore, next week we are looking at instrument for the short position. Here the probability of earning will be greater.
This is all about the results of the trading week.
To sum up the trading week:
S&P E-mini Loss $ 2,975
Crude Oil Loss $ 1,560
Total loss $ 4,535
Today we will plan for the upcoming week and consider new setups.
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