Today is Sunday, July 07th and we are summing up the trading week results.
Loss, $: New Zealand dollar, 240;
Natural Gas, 4,881;
Open positions at the current moment are:
Canadian dollar, long position – 4;
Dow Jones, long position – 5;
Dow Jones, long position – 5 (microcontract, small account).
This week was hard, especially Friday due to the news. We would say that we deliberately made such the large loss. We had the opportunity to compensate the losing trades through open positions, but we did not do it, because we see the potential in currently open deals.
Let’s consider last trading week’s deals in details.
Dow Jones (open position)
SetUp for Dow Jones was published in the weekly trading plan W24. We have already successfully traded this setup. Profit of the trade amounted to $ 6,360. We leave that deal due to the seasonality. There was the price reduction. Now we are back in the trade.
We plan to hold the position until the 20th of July. This is the trade which could potentially cover all our losses this and past weeks.
Copper (closed position)
The market opened with the large gap up on Monday, but bears won and the price pushed off the MA52. Our position was closed by stop loss. The loss amounted to $ 7,062. Since then the market has been flat for 3 days.
If we look at seasonality, we can see that the price moves very well on it. We believe that seasonality is being worked out now and it should be taken into account. Our stop order is placed on Tuesday high.
It is likely that on Monday-Wednesday the copper will grow. We hope that we will be able to return the money back that was lost on the deal last week. If there are strong impulses up, then we will hold the position to the level of $ 296. If the price rises without impulses, then we will fix profit approximately in the amount of the previous trade losses. We are watching for the copper.
New Zealand dollar (closed position)
The scenario is similar to Copper. We see the rebound from the MA52. The trade was closed by stop loss. Loss is $ 240.
Canadian dollar (open position)
During entering position of New Zealand dollar, we compared all commodity currencies. At that time, the Canadian dollar was stronger than New Zealand dollar and Australian dollar. For that reason, it was decided to entry to long position of Canadian dollar.
he idea justifies itself, the price grows. We think that the movement Canadian dollar will continue. Position is held.
Natural Gas (closed position)
Statistical trades are not very frequent. We take only those trades, which probability of execution is more than 75%. Everything looked very good for Natural Gas. There was a downtrend, seasonality. According to statistics, we had to sell Natural Gas 07/03 and hold until 07/10. If we look at the history, every year this pattern has worked itself out perfectly since 2006. But last Friday came the bull news on the Natural Gas and the price turned and went up. There was the strong impulse bar. The price rose to 6%. The deal was closed at stop loss. The loss is $ 4,880.
We think that Natural Gas should be approached from the other side not according to statistics, but from the COT data. The first thing we noticed was that on Friday the Premium appeared for the August futures. Good news came out and Commercial and Hedge Funds started to buy Natural Gas and the premium appeared.
We think that when new COT reports come out on Monday and we process them, we will see the setup to buy Natural Gas. Especially on the daily chart, we see some divergences.
To sum up the trading week:
New Zealand dollar Loss $ 240
Natural Gas Loss $ 4,880
Copper Loss $ 7,062
Total Loss $ 12,182
Today we will plan for the upcoming week and consider new setups.
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