Today is Sunday, April 21th and we are summing up the trading week results.
Loss, $: Wheat, 712.5.
Open positions at the current moment is:
US 30 Year T-Bond: short position – 7 contracts;
US 10 Year T-Bond: short position – 1 contracts (small account).
Let’s consider last week’s deals in details.
SetUp for wheat was published in the Weekly Trading Plan W12. We entered into the trade on impulse, but it did not continue to grow. The price went down. The trade of last week has been closed via stop with the loss of $ 712.5.
Why do we expect a growth?
Pay attention to the net positions of Commercial. They bought wheat in a trend. In the figure below, the timing of their buy points are highlighted in red.
If we look at November 2018, Commercial bought the wheat as well, but the volume was small. So Commercial during set of position followed a trend. Now we see the same picture. Thus, wheat should not be removed from our checklist. We plan to look at wheat in terms of buy in the next few months.
Also according to our analysis, wheat has a 16-month cycle. We wrote about this in the trading results W 15. According to this analysis, wheat is at low. This is another factor in favor of rising wheat prices.
Thus, we expect interesting movements in wheat in a near future.
The next trades are US 30 Year T-Bond and 10 Year T-Bond. Both instruments have the same situation in terms of analysis. Let’s discus 30 Year T-Bond. Bonds were in the plan of the 15th trading week. We have a setup for sell here.
On a weekly chart, we can assume that there is an upward movement, but pay attention to Commercial index. It shows to sell. There are no buy signals.
On the second weekly chart, we can see how Commercial sells by the trend. There were big sale in May 2016. They also sold in August 2017. Now they also sell the instrument. In other words, they set the positions for the trend. And on chart below we see an interesting situation in the net positions of small speculators. They are still buyers when the large speculators have already started selling bonds (marked in yellow).
Now we see a high degree feasibility of implementing our bond sell setup.
Daily chart. Now the trade is on trend. Due to this, the stop loss is far from the market price. We do not move a stop yet and it place above for April 10th. On Thursday there was a correction.
We will see how the price will behave on Monday and Tuesday.
There is a same situation with the open position on a small account (10-year bonds).
To sum up the trading week:
Wheat Loss $ 712.5
Total Loss $ 712.5
Today we will plan for the upcoming week and consider new setups.
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