Hello Insiders and Traders,
Today is Sunday, January 12th and we are summing up trading week.
Open positions at the end of week are:
10-year T-bonds, long position – 3.
Due to the New Year holidays, we can say that trading week 02 was short. COT reports were released only on Monday and in fact we traded for three days only. At the moment, reports are published in time, market players return to the market after the New Year holidays and full trade begins.
Let me remind you that trading in January we are working with reduced risks. This means that we choose trades more accurately and take deals with a greater likelihood of making a profit, and when entering a position we take a lower percentage of risk. Our statistics show that we earn less in January. TRACK RECORD. This is due to the news background and the fact that the first COT reports are delayed.
This is our map of COT-Setups for week 02nd.
So, at the moment we have an open position on bonds.
10-YR T-BONDS (open position)
This is new Setup for 30-YR T-BONDS and it has been formed based on COT-report which was published on 12/30. So we treat it as Setup for W01 trading week.
There has been a strong uptrend since the end of 2018. Now we are seeing a correction to MA52. If we look at this correction, we will see that Commercial have bought Bonds for the past few months (green highlight). The net positions of Commercial on this correction grew (blue highlight). We assume that in the near future there may be a good upward movement.
So, we have 3 open contracts 10-YR T-BONDS. We bought 10-year T-bounds because risk per trade $1,500 covered our risk management. It was more $3,500 for 30-year T-bounds. On Thursday there was a descent to MA18. We are keeping the position.
Unfortunately, until 01/15 a few days left. This is our time target for this position. According to seasonality on this date, there is an inflection point. Next a decrease comes in seasonality. Also a factor against us is statistics of bond price behavior in February. Bonds generally decline in February.
So, we will see how the market will be held on Monday and Tuesday. If the price approaches high of 01/08 by Wednesday, then we will move the stop loss below low 01/09. Those we will reduce risks and will continue to look and make decisions.
There is a situation of uncertainty. Heights are not rewritten, lows are rewritten, but this decline was bought back. Perhaps some flat movement in the near future can be here.
To sum up the trading week:
no closed position
Total profit $0,0
That’s all about our trading in this week.
Next, we are moving to planning trading week 03.
Trade smart, Insider Week team
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