Futures Trading based on COT Report W31-20

by Michael Chechnev | Aug 2, 2020 | Trading week results

Hello Everyone,

Today is Sunday and we traditionally summarize the last trading week and prepare our plan for the next trading week.

After a significant loss in week 28, we made a good profit this week:
COFFEE profit $17,775;
SOYBEAN OIL Profit $420;

We are approaching the exit from a drawdown. Let’s see what week 31 was in trading.

Our open position at this moment:

SOYBEAN OIL (closed position), profit $420

SetUp to buy for Soybean Oil was published in the weekly trading plan W28. This is third signal in a row.
According to the latest COT data, we see that the COT index is discharged and moves into the sell zone. For us, this means that next week or in a few weeks a short signal may be formed.

Regarding our deal. The position was opened on July, 17. The trade was opened on the impulse through the MA18 pattern. We closed part of the position last week (profit $1,320), and the second part this week (profit $420).

As we can see on the daily chart, the price went into correction and our trade was closed via the stop loss, which was placed below July, 24.

Here it was possible to make another trade on a pullback, but we didn’t do this, since the focus was on softs. The total profit from the soybean oil signal is $1,740.

COFFEE (closed position), profit $17,775

SetUp to buy for Coffee was published in the weekly trading plan W30. Coffee gains momentum very well. We think that coffee will continue to move up.

We had two deals here. Came out for one of the goals. Exit on target 113 was due to strong overbought on the %R indicator. Also, the supply and demand indicator showed bearish sentiment. Now we are realizing that most likely it was due to the rollover to a new contract. Profit is $17,775.

We are waiting for a correction and a short-term pattern. We plan to enter the long coffee trade again. Momentum bullish, accumulation bullish. Experience shows that if a trend movement develops, then there are always opportunities to enter to position. The main thing here is not to rush.

COCOA (open position)

This is our open position. SetUp to buy for Cocoa was published in the weekly trading plan W29. COT index continues to be in the buy zone. There is every chance that we will take the highs of January 2020 and the price will go to the level of 3000.

The position was opened on July, 27, the upward movement is developing. Accumulation and momentum are bullish, there is an inflection point in seasonality, but there could also be a rollover to a new contract.

Now the main question is whether the high of June (2475) will be rewritten.
We will watch how the situation will develop on Monday and Tuesday, and then we will make a decision on the further strategy here and there are two options – either completely close the position or rollover to a new contract. The current target price is 2702.


The index has been bullish this week. Most likely for this reason, our patterns and orders for orange juice and soybeans didn’t work. A weak dollar also affects the commodity market. Most likely the next week will also be growing.

To sum up the trading week:
COFFEE profit $17,775;
SOYBEAN OIL Profit $420;

That’s all about our trading in this week.
Next, we are moving to planning trading week 31.

These detailed trading plans are published for members in our Insider Week community. Join us now!

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Risk Disclosure: Trading in futures, forex and CFD's involves a high degree of risk and is not suitable for every investor. An investor may possibly lose more than the capital deposited. Only risk capital should be used for trading, or parts of risk capital. Risk capital is money, the loss of which does not change the financial situation or does not affect life. Performance achieved in the past is not a guarantee of future profits.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. The account results presented may vary significantly in gains and losses. One of the limitations of hypothetical results is that they are generated by known historical data. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk - no hypothetical track record can represent the financial risks of actual trading. For example, there is a possibility that trading will be suspended or cancelled if losses are incurred, this can greatly change the actual results. Furthermore, there are numerous other factors that cannot be fully accounted for in hypothetical performance when implementing a trading program, and thus can affect actual results.

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