Futures Trading based on COT Report W29-20

by Michael Chechnev | Jul 19, 2020 | Trading week results

Hello Everyone,

Today is Sunday and we traditionally summarize the last trading week and prepare our plan for the next trading week.

We started this week with an open position in the New Zealand dollar. Now this position is closed and at the end of the week we came up with a completely new portfolio. We have long positions in NASDAQ, Silver and Soybean oil.

Firstly, this is our map of COT-Setups for week 27th. We work on a similar map for a week.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR (closed position), loss $5,040

This trade was based on Mexican peso’s setup from week 28. At the time we entered the position, we were looking for the strongest commodity currency (you can find this comparison below). At that time it was the New Zealand dollar.

The position was opened on June, 9 according to our pattern Inside day. The price didn’t move in our direction and the position was closed by stop loss. The loss amounted to $5,040 on PRO account and $630 on Small account.

Now we see that the New Zealand dollar is weak and isn’t going to go further up. Although seasonality has range for growth and there may be attempts to grow, but the accumulation here is weak. COT index is in the sell zone.

The further development of the situation is difficult to predict now. Weakness is common in all currencies. During formation a weekly trading plan for next week, let’s look at the new COT data and think about where we can make a profit in currencies.

SOYBEAN OIL (open position)

SetUp to buy for Soybean Oil was published in the weekly trading plan W28.
See how actively Soybean oil began to gain impulse and strength after flat movement from the beginning of June. With such impulses, significant upward movements are possible in the next 1-2 days. There is an example in history with movements of more than 4%.

The position was opened this Friday according to the MA18 pattern. Target price is 36.85.
But most likely we won’t wait for the target price. If there are good impulses on Monday or Tuesday, we will close the position earlier. We need to cover our losses from the past weeks. Momentum breaks downtrend, accumulation is bullish. There are all chances for a further significant rise in prices.

SILVER (open position)

SetUp to buy for Silver was published in the weekly trading plan W28. The position is open on July, 13 and it is held. We are planning to close the position at the price 1988, because supply and demand indicator shows bearish movement.

Yes, there may be new high, the more seasonality promotes growth, but at any moment the price may fall. The indicator %R is also showing strong overbought.

Now it is difficult to say whether the price will reach our initial target of 2104 or not, but there will be a deep correction to MA18. That is why we plan to close it at level 1988.

NASDAQ (open position)

There is no valid setup for NASDAQ, but there are valid setups for SP500 and Dow Jones. At the time of entering the trade, we compared the indices of all sector.

The micro contracts were opened in NASDAQ as the strongest index at the time of entry. Now the price has gone into a correction and we see weakness here. This is primarily due to the seasonal factor.

We believe that impulses are still possible until July 22-23 and we plan to close positions on these dates.
Up to the target of 11,810.25 the price is likely to be the price, but these dates end with the seasonal factor, which works well in NASDAQ.
Accumulation is bullish right now, so chances of impulses are high.

August-September are negative months for indices. There can be big corrections here. We will play it safe and get out of the long position in NASDAQ.


CRB index is growing, but the situation is uncertain, because the momentum indicator doesn’t make new high. Here we will either flat movement or move down.
We will look in which direction the new setups will be after analyzing the last COT report. This will give a rough idea of the next week.

To sum up the trading week:
New Zealand dollar, loss $5,040
Total loss $5,040.

That’s all about our trading in this week.
Next, we are moving to planning trading week 30.

These detailed trading plans are published for members in our Insider Week community. Join us now!

Trade smart, Insider Week team

Find out everything about our trading based on COT data?

Come into the trading group COT-Trading

30 day FREE Trial

Our Trading Performance  HERE

Our COT-Trading Service https://insider-week.com/iw-cot-trading/

Risk Disclosure: Trading in futures, forex and CFD's involves a high degree of risk and is not suitable for every investor. An investor may possibly lose more than the capital deposited. Only risk capital should be used for trading, or parts of risk capital. Risk capital is money, the loss of which does not change the financial situation or does not affect life. Performance achieved in the past is not a guarantee of future profits.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. The account results presented may vary significantly in gains and losses. One of the limitations of hypothetical results is that they are generated by known historical data. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk - no hypothetical track record can represent the financial risks of actual trading. For example, there is a possibility that trading will be suspended or cancelled if losses are incurred, this can greatly change the actual results. Furthermore, there are numerous other factors that cannot be fully accounted for in hypothetical performance when implementing a trading program, and thus can affect actual results.

Testimonials appearing on this website are not representative of other clients and are not a guarantee of future performance or success.