Futures Trading based on COT Report W19-20

by Michael Chechnev | May 10, 2020 | Trading week results

Hello Traders,

Today is Sunday, May 10rd and we are summing up trading week 19.

By the end of the week, we fixed a profit of $833.

And we came up with a long position in Cotton.

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Firstly, this is our map of COT-Setups for week 18th.



COFFEE (closed position), profit $3,993

SetUp to sell for Coffee was published in the weekly trading plan W15.

Entry to this trade was on April 24 according to our pattern MA18. Target price was 73.10.

When preparing a weekly plan for the current week, the indicator of supply and demand began to show the possibility of a pullback. Therefore, for this reason, we have moved the stop loss closer to the market price. Our expectations turned out to be true. Coffee went to the correction.
The trade was closed by stop loss. Profit is $ 3,993 here.

Now on the weekly chart we see that the price has rewritten the peaks of the week. This means that there will be either a deep correction or a trend change. The probability of a change in the trend is quite high, since at current price levels we see serious support.

Our further strategy in this instrument depends on the result of price movement near MA18 (rebound or breaking MA18). The momentum indicator is bearish and shows that the probability of a downward movement still exists. The beginning of the week will be shown to us by the further movement of the price of coffee for the coming week.





COTTON (closed&open positions), loss $3,160

SetUp to buy for Cotton was published in the weekly trading plan W16. Setup was formed based on analisys COT report from 04/10/20.

There is a downtrend and this long setup against trend. This suggests that here we still have to be careful.

Entry to the deal was 1st May 2020. This entry was according to the MA18 pattern. After the price went in our direction, we divided the deal into two parts. One part was closed via stop loss with a loss of $3,160.

3 long Cotton contracts remain open. Stop loss for them is placed below 05/06 – 1 tick.

We see that the positions of the commercial are still in the positive zone. It tell us that a probability of upward movement is high. But most likely it will be a non-impulsive and sluggish diversion.

There is also a bullish indicator of supply and demand. It make new high, price does not. The momentum is also bullish.

There is a likelihood that the beginning of the week will be growing. But we need to be prepared that the growth in cotton price of cotton will be slow.










INDEX CRB

On the weekly chart of CRB index, we see that the week was growing and there is a way out of the flat movement that we talked about last week. Next week is also look like growing.


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To sum up the trading week:
Coffee, profit $3,993
Cotton, loss $3,160
Total profit $833.

That’s all about our trading in this week.
Next, we are moving to planning trading week 20.

Looking ahead, I say that the next week will be saturated. An analysis of the COT report from 05/09 formed 7 new SetUps.

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