Futures Trading based on COT Report W15-20

by Michael Chechnev | Apr 12, 2020 | Trading week results

Hello Traders,

Today is Sunday and we traditionally summarize the last trading week and prepare our plan for the next trading week.
This week we didn’t close a position, so the summarize will be short.

By the end of the week we came up with a short position in soybeans.

Selling 9 contracts was on Monday. We entered the deal for our new setup from the 15th week.


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This is our map of COT-Setups for week 15th. We worked on this map this week.


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SOYBEANS (open position)

Soybeans is now in a downtrend. Also an argument for the fall is the indicator of supply and demand, which makes new lows. Based on it, we can see new low on Monday or Tuesday. However, it should be noted that expiration of the futures is coming soon, and this indicator may not work correctly. Of course, this must be taken into account.


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Seasonality is also noteworthy. Seasonality, which we see above the daily chart below (green line), currently correlates well with 5, 10 and 15 year seasonality. This strong seasonal bulishl factor could push the price up.


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Most likely, we’ll close part of the position tomorrow and roll over to a new contract. We’ll make the decision during the formation of the weekly plan.

Also pay attention to how confidently the price of soybean meal went down. Soybean Meal ignores the seasonal factor. If you remember, when entering the position, we compared the soy sector and at that time the soybean meal was stronger than soybeans. In fact, we see a different picture.


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So, according to the open position of soybeans, we will make a decision tonight.

INDEX CRB

There is weekly rising candle and a chance that there will be growth next week. It is important that the height of week 12 be rewritten. We believe that growth will continue.


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That’s all about our trading in this week.
Next, we are moving to planning trading week 16.

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