Futures Trading based on COT Report W11-20

by Michael Chechnev | Mar 15, 2020 | Trading week results

Hello Traders,

we have a significant event.
This week we have exceeded the line of $500,000 on our trading account.

$14,000 were invested in 2014. Trading based on COT reports, as a fundamental part of the strategy, strict risk management, adding cycles to the strategy, analyzing the Premiums in futures and much more, allowed the start-up capital to be turned into $500,000.

We are very happy about the new height, and also happy for those who follow our trade, who use our Setups in their own trading, and who have the strategy allowed to increase their own account as well.

More details about our COT strategy can be found here.

So, back to the analysis of last week’s deals.

We didn’t open new deals due to the high volatility in the markets. Over the coming week, we plan to continue trading if there are deals with a suitable level of risk.
This week we closed the following positions:
Sugar Profit $16,016;
no losses.

At the moment long position position of Soybean Meal are still opened.



Firstly, this is our map of COT-Setups for week 11st. Based on this we worked on this week.



SUGAR (closed position), profit $16,016

SetUp to sell for Sugar was published in the weekly trading plan W05 as well.

Please, pay attention to how interesting the price behaved after the setup formation. At first there was a movement up, then the price rapidly went down.
Enter to the short position was 03/06 with 10 contracts. Upon entering the deal, we set the target price as 12.30.

We closed the trade earlier, because there was a big gap at the market opening on Monday and there was a high probability of closing this gap. We decided to look for interesting entry points after this gap is closed.
So the gap was closed, but there was no interesting entry point yet. Profit amounted to $16,016 in this trade.

The closing of market gaps is interestingly written in Jack D. Schwager’s book Technical Analysis.

At the moment in the new COT report we see that the net positions of commercial players are rising very slowly. Also until May, there is good seasonality down. Notice how well Sugar has moved seasonally since September, 2019.

We believe that the downward movement of sugar will continue. And we plan to open short positions in sugar on all pullbacks.






SOYBEAN MEAL (open position), 9 long contracts

The long position was opened on the 10th week. Also at 10 weeks we have formed the setup to sell. For our subscribers, we talked about the need to reverse the position. That is, we close the long trade and open the short one.

The strategy hasn’t changed. Here we need to wait for rewriting of the low 03/09. There is a slight chance that due to seasonality there will be an increase in prices on Monday and Tuesday. And if in the coming days the low won’t be broken, then the chances of a price growing increase. In another case, we will close this position and open a short one.

This is an interesting trade. Situations when there is a need to reverse a position arise rarely. By the way, compare the charts of Soybean Oil, Soybeans and Soybean Meal. The Soybean Meal is very strong compared to them. All the same, there is a chance that the price will rise.







INDEX CRB

Usually we publish a weekly chart, but today let’s see a monthly chart. The lows of 2015 have already been rewritten. The CRB index is heading to the lows of 2008. Next week will be falling most likely. And we will be more likely to open short positions.


To sum up the trading week:
Sugar Profit $16,016
Total profit $16,016.

That’s all about our trading in this week.
Next, we are moving to planning trading week 12. Interesting futures to trade next week are the currency markets and the energy sector.

These detailed trading plans are published for members in our Insider Week community. Join us now!

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