Futures Trading based on COT Report W07-20

by Michael Chechnev | Feb 16, 2020 | Trading week results

Hello Traders,

Today is Sunday, February 16th and we are summing up trading week.

Profit, $:

Loss, $:
Cotton, loss $2,575.

Open positions at the end of week are:
Cotton, short position – 19;
British Pound, short position – 4;
Swiss Franc, short position – 4;
Wheat, short position – 15;
Wheat, short position – 1 (small account).



This is our map of COT-Setups for week 06th.



COTTON FUTURES (open position)

We have a valid cotton setup to sell, which was formed as a result of the analysis of COT data from 01/17. We must pay attention that the COT index is still not discharged. This suggests that the downward movement may continue. Seasonality can contribute to this as well. A slight upward movement of seasonality ends in a few days and then decline may begin. We hope that seasonality will work as it was a year ago. See how the price has been dropping at this time in past years.


What is about our trade here? The first entry into the short position was unsuccessful and we had a loss of $2,575. The second time we have entered to cotton position via a rollback. The position is currently in “plus”.





When opening the position, we didn’t pay due attention to the expiration date and sold the current contract. We didn’t notice that we need to switch to a new contract.
Therefore, on Monday we will close the position with the current contract and look for opportunities to open the new contracts, as the price of the May contract behaves a little differently – the May contract is stronger.

However, the supply and demand indicator is in a downward trend and there is a high probability that the price will rebound from MA18 and go down. Bullish signals aren’t visible here.




BRITISH POUND FUTURES (open position)

This week closed with a green bar, the price didn’t want to fall. Stop loss isn’t moving yet, it is placed above 01/31 + 1 tick.



In this position, we don’t like accumulation, the indicator makes new heights. Most likely at the beginning of the week we will close part of this position. We will consider the strategy in more details in the trading plans for next week. Our decision depends on the COT data released this Friday.





SWISS FRANC FUTURES (open position)

Setup for sell was on week 07th as well. Swiss Franc is weaker. Here we see a rebound from the resistance level. The price was slowly going down and there was a good impulse last week. Therefore, stop loss is moving above Wednesday high + 1 tick. The accumulation is bearish, other indicators are bearish as well, seasonality is down also. Target price is 1.007.






WHEAT FUTURES (open position)

SetUp to sell for Wheat was published in the weekly trading plan W05. As always, seasonality works well in the wheat. The only negative point here is this trade is against the trend. However, at the moment everything is in our favor.
The trade is open on both accounts – PRO (link) and small (link) accounts. We keep the position.









INDEX CRB

Last week was bullish. The next week is expected to be a week of growth as well. We have setups to buy in the energy sector, in metals and in the soybean sector.


To sum up the trading week:
Cotton, loss $2,575.
Total loss $2,575.

That’s all about our trading in this week.
Next, we are moving to planning trading week 08.

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