Our Futures Trading Results. Week 38 2022
Our results of the week
+$3,772 profits. That’s the trading result from our commodity and futures trading according to COT data and our weather analysis in week number 38. At InsiderWeek we are in total trading three strategies, namely two COT strategies where we use COT data to formulate our trades and our weather trading strategy where we use extreme weather analysis. For our COT 1 strategy we publish our daily trading plan in our Telegram group. That means you can follow our daily trades by joining our Telegram group. The same holds for our weather trading strategy. Here we also publish our trading plan in the Telegram group. Let’s have a look at what this looks like in the Telegram group. The group’s name is Commodities Trading Insider Week. As you can see we are publishing our open positions and our trading plans. As you can see we are publishing both our entry level and the exit level. Additionally you can always track our current open positions. So you can follow us and join this Telegram group by using the link below this video. Follow our trades in real time to learn from them for your own trading.
In our first COT strategy in this week we made a loss. This loss amounted to -$7,160. Our total capital in this strategy at the moment amounts to $772,000. In our weather trading strategy we made a total loss of -$1,928. As you can see our total capital at the moment amounts to $186,000. Our starting Capital amounted to $100,000. Now our total profit so far is +$86,000. We’re trading this strategy for 10 months. The COT 2 strategy - the so-called champion strategy - is the trading strategy where we don’t publish the trades in our Telegram group. In this strategy in this week we made a total profit of +$12,860. Let’s have a look at the trades of this week in detail.
Let’s start with our first COT strategy. We started into the week with two open positions, the first being one short contract in coffee, the second being three long contracts in platinum. Both positions were slightly in the loss and at the end of this week we have one open position, namely heating oil, one short contract, which is in the win with +$1,500. Before we discuss the trades in detail let’s have a look at the CRB index. As you can see the price broke through the trend line and that means we are in an interesting time at the moment because on the one hand the price could go to the downside or it may bounce back to the upside and continue its path to the upside. That’s what we are going to see in the next weeks. Why are we looking at the CRB index at first? Well the CRB index is the commodity price index. Here we can already see in which directions the markets could go to. By analyzing the CRB index we have already first insights for formulating our watch list. First Market: platinum. On the weekly chart we derive our buy and sell signals from the COT data. As you can see we received two buy signals in a row and although the weekly trend is slightly decreasing we found a support level here on the daily chart. You can see that we entered this market with a long trade and on Tuesday we decided to exit the trade. In expectation of the interest rate decision on Wednesday we expected that the interest rates are going to rise which would strengthen the US Dollar and have a negative influence on the commodities and exactly that’s what happened and as you can see by closing this position we realized a total profit of +$2,790. Next market: coffee. In coffee we received a sell signal and as you can see in the past the market moved in a sideways range. Now we decided to enter this market with a short trade because we expected that the market is going to move to the lower boundary of the range. There was enough space for our short trade. On the daily chart you can see our advanced entry technique. We planned our entry and we entered the market according to our plan and the stop loss is still to be discussed. With this short trade we made a total loss of -$6,975. Why did that happen? Well we were entering this market and after we entered this market we decided to exit it in the middle of the week. Why did we do so? Well according to the analysis of the fundamental news, according to the weather, and according to supply we saw that the stock of coffee is very low. Here you can see that the stock of coffee has been declining and that’s a very bullish signal. After this news has been released we saw that the prices are rising. According to minimized risk and not waiting to be stopped out we decided to actively close the position. When we receive news like that we already are flexible enough to react and exit the position if we think it’s necessary and as you can see afterwards the price didn’t fall rapidly but rather moved to the downside in a slow way. If we decide to act according to the news we always give ourselves the opportunity to re-enter the market. In this case of coffee that means that if the danger is over and the price continues to move to the downside in a downtrend then we are interested to re-enter the market. Next market: soybeans. As you can see the soybeans market and the weekly trend is hard to determine. However it’s rather increasing. The tendency for the uptrend can also be derived from the increasing moving average. We received a couple of buy signals around the same level. Two buy signals became invalid and now we received a new buy signal on the weekly chart. On the daily chart we can show you why we are very proud of this trade. The trade itself had an extremely great reward to risk ratio. After we entered this market the price increased and we moved the stop loss right to the previous low. By that we had an extremely good outlook for great positive expectancy. This trade would have been a perfect example in one of our teaching books. However the market decided otherwise. As you can see the price turned around to the downside and we were stopped out with an extremely small stop loss. We were long in this market with 14 long contracts which is a huge position and for that our loss of -$2,975 is extremely low. This trade is a great example to always be patient and to train for patience because it’s important that we always respect the market and we have to accept what it gives to us. And as a result although we expected a great gain we remained relaxed. Next market: heating oil. In heating oil we received a sell signal. Before that the market moved in a sideways range and as we’ve seen that the CRB index was falling we were also adding some short trade opportunities to our watch list, just in case that the markets are moving further to the downside. We could also see that the seasonal trend was declining and because of that the market itself seemed very attractive for one of the short trades. Additionally we could see that in comparison with other energy sectors heating oil was the most attractive market because it was the weakest. On Friday you can see that we were triggered according to our entry pattern. It’s important to know that in our trading group we post the trades always before the actual trade happens. We also add our explanations our reasoning and post updates in the evenings.
Now let’s have a look at our weather trading strategy. As you can see in our weather trading strategy we made a total loss this week of -$1,928. In this strategy we combine COT data with fundamental extreme weather analysis. As mentioned before we have started to trade this strategy in the last December with a starting capital of $100,000 and almost in one year, the year is not over yet, we have realized a total return of 86 percent. That’s an extremely good rate of return and that shows that this strategy is extremely profitable. In the weather trading strategy we are trading commodity futures. As you can see we also are holding several commodity stocks. By time we want to exit these commodity stocks and then focus on our core competence, namely trading futures. Now let’s have a look at the position that we’ve traded in this strategy. In corn and in soybean in the past we’ve seen uptrends. We’ve expected to see a similar pattern on the daily chart again. Accordingly we decided to take a long trade in this market as we’ve seen in the past. This kind of trade would have worked very well, however in this week the interest rate decision has taken part and thus a strong US Dollar put downwards pressure until the end of the last week on the commodities markets. However the fundamental basis of this market still looks very bullish and because of that we will look for re-entry opportunities and if reentry opportunities aren’t appearing that’s totally fine to us because then we would wait until we receive COT sell signals and then take short entries in this market. That’s the great advantage of trading futures compared to stocks and because Futures are less correlated to the stock market one can either take long trades or take short trades.
Next let’s have a look at our COT strategy too. That’s the so-called champion strategy and as a reminder in our Telegram group we only post the trading plan for our COT 1 strategy and our weather trading strategy not so for our champion strategy. For the Telegram group use the link below this video to enter it and learn from us. In our champion strategy we started into the week with one open position, namely five long contracts in platinum. At the end of this week we have one open position, namely two short contracts in copper. Our weekly performance of the strategy was a profit of +$12,860. When we have a look at the equity curve of the strategy we can see that in June, July there was a drawdown in the strategy. That’s the time period where the markets went in the opposite direction. We had four open positions in this time in the weekly trend direction and so we were confronted with these losses. At the moment we can see that we move out of this drawdown and accordingly we aim to reach new all-time highs. On the bottom of the slide we can see the bar chart of the monthly returns and as you can see in total we only had three months where we had a negative performance. All the other months were extremely profitable. The first market of the strategy was soybeans and the same happened as in the first COT strategy. After the interest rate decision release we were stopped out. The next market was platinum and here the same happened. Here we actually were able to close the position one day earlier which was the right decision as we made profit and then afterwards the price moved to the downside, especially on Friday. Next market: Swiss franc. This Market was on our watch list for a short trade and as other central banks were increasing their interest rates the Swiss franc was falling and we were triggered in the market on Thursday and we exited the market on Friday. This is a trade which we are very satisfied with because we made good money with it. And the last market is copper with a similar entry. Two short contracts and the position is still open.
That’s it from our side this week. Thank you for your attention. I will write the summary of this week’s trades in our Telegram group. Just scan the QR code that you can see on the screen right now to join this Telegram group. Thank you for your attention. We are currently in an exciting time. This week was full of events. In the beginning we saw a trend continuation and then there was the interest rate decision. Markets corrected and so our plans were not working out. However we know that we are in a profitable time now and we aim to again have profitable end results at the end of this year. If I have a look at the stock market and I compare it with our account and see that we are 20 percent in the win I can be satisfied. Of course there’s still potential but as an intermediary result I’m satisfied. Are you prepared with your strategy for the coming profitable weeks? Write it in the comments and if you’re already there give this video a like and subscribe to our channel such that we know that you are interested to get our insights about the commodity markets. Thank you very much for that we wish you a good preparation for the next trading week and as always be aware of the risk because risk management is the key to success in trading. See you all at the next trading report.