Our Futures Trading Results. Week 28 2022
Our results of the week
A total loss of -$3,691. That’s the trading result of our commodity and futures trading according to COT data in week number 28. Welcome to InsiderWeek. In this video, I’m going to show to you the trades of this week and the corresponding results.
As always let’s start with our first COT strategy. Here we derive our buy and sell signals on the weekly chart and look for entry patterns on the daily chart. We started into the week with one long contract in lumber and at the end of this week we are left with one open position, namely 23 long contracts in sugar. Let’s have a look at the trades. First trade: Lumber on the weekly chart. Here you can see the buy and sell signals. As you can see we received a buy situation in the last weeks. On this chart you can see the technical analysis that we’ve used to determine that there’s enough space for the price to move to the upside. On the daily chart we usually wait for a trend reversal to appear and then we enter the market using our entry patterns. After our entry you can see that the price moved into our direction and then there was a correction. We expect it to only be a correction but not a trend reversal and thus we will look for re-entry possibilities in the next week. With this trade we made a total loss of -$7,249. Next let’s have a look at the sugar trade. As you can see the market moves in a range and at the lower boundary of this range we received a buy signal where other buy signals appeared before. As you can see the seasonal trend is increasing which is a confirmation for this buy signal. On this chart you can see that there’s enough space for the price to move to the upside. From our fundamental weather analysis we know that there’s no fundamental reason for a stable uptrend at the moment, nevertheless we can see that the seasonal trend is increasing. So we took our chance to take an intermediary trade. On the daily chart you can see that we traded this market with short positions very successfully. The price turned around and then our entry pattern appeared and now we are long in this market with 23 contracts. If you want to learn our trading strategy in our coaching program please find the link below this video to date a strategic call with us.
Our second trading strategy is the so-called champion strategy. By using this strategy we frequently appear in the top five of the world trading championship. We started into the week with an open position in cotton with two long contracts. At the end of this week we are in the market with one long contract in natural gas. As you can see we are very well in the win with an accounting profit of +$4,000. In the champion strategy we had a performance of -$1,365 in this week. At the same time we still hold that open position in natural gas with +$4,040 accounting profits. The first trade in the strategy was a loss trade in cotton. As you can see we traded this market with a long trade. Although the weekly trend was showing to the downside the fundamental reasons are bullish. However the increasing interest rates and the strong US Dollar made the cotton price fall. This opportunity is a perfect example for you to learn: It’s a crucial rule in trading to not trade against the trend. The second trade in the strategy was a trade in sugar. As shown before we also had a trade in sugar in the COT strategy however here we used a different entry pattern and we closed this trade on Friday to balance out the losses from the other trade. The next trade is the trade in natural gas. Here you can see that the previous trend was a bullish weekly uptrend and then it was followed by a sell-off. Now we can see a re-establishment of the uptrend. We entered this market, the market moves impulsively into our direction, and we are well in the win with one long contract.
Now let’s have a look at our last strategy - the weather trading strategy. Here we combine fundamental insights from the COT data with our fundamental extreme weather analysis. As you can see in this trading strategy we are currently holding an ETF in natural gas which is called BOIL. We also trade futures but at the moment our other positions that are as you can see in the loss are the trades in commodity stocks. As you can see in this week we however could gain a total profit of +$4,923. Let’s have a look at how we establish that profits. The trade in cotton is the trade that you already know. In this week we exited this trade. Here on the daily chart you can see that we exited this trade with a small loss. As you can see the stop loss was very close and thus we could successfully protect our capital. The next trade was a trade in wheat which we traded because of fundamentals that you can read here. On the daily chart you can see that the market was firstly increasing and then there was a trend reversal to the downside. There was a strong sell-off that was also indicated by a sell signal that we received there. The market went into a correction and we used it to enter this market with a short trade. As you can see the trend continued to the downside and on Friday we exited this trade and made a total profit of +$5,638. That’s our wheat trade. Our next trade is based on the natural gas price development. Here we’ve chosen to not trade the natural gas future but the BOIL ETF. As you can see the price is moving into our direction and we are in this market and well in the win. We want to take only short-term trades and use re-entries to make our profits. Our next trades in the commodity stocks are based on the idea of trading on the US drought in this season. Here you can see the stocks that you already know and as mentioned before we plan to exit the weakest markets and only keep our favorite stocks. By that we free risk capital and thus this capital is available for new trades in commodity stocks, in commodities, and also in commodity ETFs.
At the end let’s have a look at the CRB index as usual. The commodity price index follows our scenario we expect the correction to go on until the end of August and then the prevailing and primary uptrend is expected by us to continue.
That’s it from our side this week. Do you have already a profitable trading strategy? Write it to us in our comments and if you’re already there give this video a like such that we know that you’re interested to see more insights from our trading practice. If you’re a practitioner as well it’s wise to subscribe to our channel to not miss out on these future videos. Thank you for your attention and as always be aware of the risk because risk management is the key to success in trading.