Our Futures Trading Results. Week 5 2022
Our results of the week
-$27,145. That's the trading result from our commodity and futures trading according to COT data in week number five. Welcome to InsiderWeek. In this video, I’m going to show to you the trades of this week and the corresponding results. We started into the week with a portfolio that consisted of two open positions, namely 35 short contracts in Mexican Peso and eight long contracts in Wheat. During the week we closed the position in Wheat and at the end of this week we are left with one open position in the portfolio, namely 35 short contracts in Mexican Peso. Let's have a look at the trades individually.
First market: Wheat. As you can see we received a buy signal. In the past we received a lot of buy and sell signals and most of these signals led to corrections or trend continuations. Thus the buy and sell signals work very well in this market. Nevertheless at the moment we are facing weak seasonal trend. We mentioned in the videos before that the seasonal trend does not confirm our buy signal and that's kind of what we are seeing at the moment. We don't see a clear trend continuation. When we have a look at seasonality itself we can clearly see that Wheat is seasonally weak in this period. On the daily chart we were stopped out as you can see here and by that we made a total loss of -$24,700 in this market.
Next market: Mexican Peso. As you can see we have a strong resistance level in this market. Around the resistance level there is a new sell signal. We used the sell signal to take a short trade in this market. We expect the price to move to the lower boundary of this range. On the daily chart you can see that we were triggered in this market. Shortly after that price corrected, it made a new high, and on Friday we had a new sell-off. We expect the price to continue its path to the downside and we plan to move our stop loss to the last high.
Now let's have a look at our second COT strategy - the so-called champion strategy. We started into the week with a portfolio that consisted of one open position, namely Heating Oil. Here we had two long contracts. With this trade we were comfortably in the win. During the week we added another trade and at the end of this week we have an empty portfolio. In the last week our champion strategy produced a net result of -$2,445. Let's have a look at the trades individually.
On the daily chart of Wheat you can see that we were not so lucky in the past. We were stopped out several times and because of that this market seems to be not interesting to us anymore. We can clearly see from the daily chart that the trend continuation to the upside didn't happen as expected. Because of that this market is not interesting anymore.
Our second trade in the champion strategy was Heating Oil. Our position in Heating Oil was very well in the win and then price moved into a correction. We decided to balance out the loss in Wheat by taking profits in Heating Oil. After we exited the market price actually reached our target price. Nevertheless, we wanted to protect and realize our profits and we made good money by exiting the market.
At the end as always let's have a look at the CRB index - the commodity price index. As you can see the commodity price index made a new high and is very bullish and because of that we plan to take more long trades than short trades.
That's it from our side this week. As discussed in the last videos the first quarter of the year is not the most profitable quarter. The performance of the cot strategy is more profitable in the rest of the year. Because of that we are focusing in this time period on fewer trades. We expect that the next week will be a bit more active. Nevertheless we will stay focused.
That’s it from our side this week! See you all at the next trading plan next Sunday!
Max Schulz and
the InsiderWeek team