Our Futures Trading Results. Week 36 2021

Summary:

  • Our week in the markets using COT Strategy: +$1,645
  • Our week in the markets using Champion COT Strategy: +$90

 

 

A gain of +$1,735. That’s the trading result from our commodity and futures trading according to COT data in week number 36. Welcome to InsiderWeek. In this video we are going to show to you the trades of this week and the corresponding results. First of all let’s have a look at the portfolio at the beginning of the week. At the beginning of the week we had three open positions in our portfolio namely two long contracts and Natural Gas, two long contracts in Gasoline and our four  short contracts in the 30-Year T-Bonds. At the end of this week we are left with two open positions. Still we have the 30-Year T-Bonds four short contracts in our portfolio. We added seven long contracts in a New Zealand Dollar and we closed the positions in Nature Gas and Gasoline during the week. Let’s have a look at the markets individually.

First market: the 30-Year T-Bonds. On the weekly chart we derive our buy and sell signals from analyzing COT data, seasonal trend, sentiment, and other indicators as well. As you can see on the weekly chart we received a sell signal. On the daily chart we are looking for the right timing. In this case the entry doesn’t show our entry according to the entry pattern but the previous contract expired and we had to roll it in this market. We wait for our target price to be reached.

Next market: Natural Gas. This is a trade that we have on our list for a while, so we directly go to the daily chart. As you can see on the daily chart we were stopped out. We expected a deeper correction and we wanted to protect our accounting profits so we were stopped out and realized a total gain of +$1,620 and unfortunately afterwards there was an impulse wave. However in a moment, I will show to you a case where this technique actually helped us to avoid a severe loss.

Next trade: Gasoline. As you can see we received a buy signal in the weekly trend direction, however against the seasonal trend. On the daily chart you can see that we were stopped out. Here we adjusted our stop loss to protect our accounting profit and to just save getting stopped out with a high loss. At this point was our initial stop loss and as you can see we saved a lot of money. Here we can see that our technique of adjusting our stop loss worked out in this case. It’s necessary to observe whether techniques have a positive expectancy over a large number of trades. We have the experience and we tested it multiple times in the past such that we are confident when applying our trading rules. If we see that we actually missed an impulse wave for example by using this technique in the other market we know that it’s not about the single trade but about the long-term expectancy. On the long run this technique is beneficial to us and actually saves us money. That however doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t reflect, in fact you should reflect and you should always review and try to improve your strategy. For this technique, we have a positive expectancy and so we know our technique pays off in the long run. 

Next trade: New Zealand Dollar. As you can see we received a buy signal a couple of weeks ago. In this market we waited for the right timing and we saw a strong uptrend in the past and now we used this correction to enter the market. Currently we are long seven contracts and we wait for our target price to be reached.

Now let’s have a couple of words on our second strategy the so-called champion strategy. At the beginning of the week we were long six contracts in Canadian Dollar. During the week we closed this position and at the end of the week we have zero positions left in our portfolio. By closing the position in Canadian Dollar we made a little profit of +$90. let’s have a quick look at the trade itself. From the chart you can see that we were stopped out and this is because we adjusted our stop loss before the actual impulse wave to the downside happened. In this case again our techniques worked well and we saved us from losing money.

HERE you can find a summary of all individual trades and a comparison of the results of both strategies:

 

 

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Thank you for your attention and see you at the next trading results!

Max Schulz and
the InsiderWeek team