Our Futures Trading Results. Week 35 2021

Summary:

  • Our week in the markets using COT Strategy: -$7,375
  • Our week in the markets using Champion COT Strategy: -$2,648

 

 

Welcome to InsiderWeek. In this video I’m going to show to you the trading results from our commodity and futures trading according to COT data in week number 35. for week number 35 we had a total net result of -$10,023. This is a huge loss that comes from our rolling contract so this is still an open position however due to rolling contracts we had to realize losses but we are still in that position. In our second strategy the champion strategy we could realize three trades, namely Cocoa where we had an almost break-even result, Coffee where we had a loss of -$4,107, and Lean Hogs where we realized a gain of +$1,280. This gives us a net result for the week of -$10,023.

We started into the week with a portfolio that consisted of one open position namely four short contracts in the 30-Year T-bonds. We were exposed to a rolling date so at the end of the week we are still in that position however with a new contract. Additionally we have two new open positions namely two long contracts in Gasoline and two long contracts in Natural Gas. Let’s have a look at each trade individually.

First market 30-Year T-bonds: Here you can see that we received three sell signals in a row. Because the sell signal was in harmony with seasonal trend we decided for a short trade. On the daily chart you can see the short trade. As we were seeing a strong up move we were sure that the trend reversal slowly happens and will be accompanied by corrections. We expected that so we put our stop loss far enough away from the current price. However here we were stopped out because it was a rolling contract. We closed the trade in the old contract and opened it in a new contract. As you can see we adjusted our stop loss, made it more close to the current price, and we saw a bearish Friday which follows the seasonal trend and so we expect to see further lower prices such that we expect our target price to be reached.

Next market Natural Gas: As you can see we received a lot of buy signals here which however were not in line with seasonal trend. The current buy signal is in line with seasonal trend so we decided to trade this market on the long side. On the daily chart you can see that we entered this market a while ago and we were stopped out unfortunately with a loss. As you can see from the following price moves our setup was correct and our buy signal was valid and confirmed. However the timing was not right and now we entered this market again and now we are slightly in the win. We expect to see higher prices in this market such that we can out-balance our last loss and then go into the profit zone.

Next market Gasoline: As you can see we had a strong uptrend in this market. The commercials went extremely long which produced our buy signal. On the daily chart you can see that there are strong impulse waves. There was already a strong up move and we are quite late here. That’s because we stick to our trading rules and our entry pattern just appeared this week. As you can see the price didn’t develop so far as expected we have our stop loss on the low from Wednesday and next week we will see where price will finally move and whether we will gain profits from this trade.

As always a few words on our second strategy the so-called champion strategy. As mentioned before here we were stopped out in Coffee and we closed the positions in Cocoa and Lean Hogs. Furthermore we opened a position in Canadian Dollar and now at the end of this week we are left with this position. In total we realized a loss of -$2,648 this week. That means this week we were not able to reach a new all-time high. 

Now let’s have a look at CRB index as usual. As you can see the commodity prices overtook the last week’s bar so we can see that CRB index is still strong. We will take this into account and we will focus more on the bullish signals that we receive compared to the sell signals.

HERE you can find a summary of all individual trades and a comparison of the results of both strategies:

 

 

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We wish you much success for the coming trading week!

Max Schulz and
the InsiderWeek team