Our Futures Trading Results. Week 24 2022
Our results of the week
-$9,911 loss. We are currently in a drawdown and that’s usual for this summer time. Our drawdown currently amounts to -2.73%. That’s not even 3% which is normal and acceptable. Although that’s part of professional trading we now have a look at the individual trades of trading week number 24. Welcome to InsiderWeek. In this video I’m going to show to you the trading results from week 24 for our commodity and futures trading according to COT data and our fundamental weather analysis. In this video series we show to you our market expectations for the coming week based on freely available COT data and fundamental extreme weather analysis. On the link below this video you’ll find our website link insider-sweek.com where you can find all the up-to-date data on seasonality and COT data. If you yourself want to become a professional trader check out our coaching programs and write us a message with your questions.
Let’s start with our first COT strategy. As you can see we started into the week with 17 short contracts in sugar and you know that position from our last trading report on last Sunday and at the end of this week we are still in that position and as you can see we are well in the win with above $6,000. Let me show to you why we took this trade. Here you can see the weekly chart of sugar. On the weekly chart we receive our buy and sell signals. As you can see we received a clear sell signal in sugar. After we receive our buy and sell signals we look for entry patterns on the daily chart. This is the quarterly chart of sugar. I’m showing to you this chart because it’s of highest importance if you’re interested in trading sugar because here you can see the lower range of the market and thus the level of 10 indicates where the price of sugar could fall to. This is especially interesting for you if you see that there’s much space for the market to move and thus there’s high potential for high profits in this market. On this chart you can see some weather fundamentals that we’ve gathered for you. Sugar is mainly produced in Brazil and India and as you can see the weather expectations are great. The weather outlook seems to be normal without any threats for future crops and thus the sugar market is under downwards price pressure. On the daily chart you can see where we entered the market. As you can see the price moved into our direction and now we are in the market with 17 short contracts and we wait for the target price to be reached.
Now let’s have a look at our champion strategy. Here we also use COT data on the weekly chart to enter the market. However the frequency of signals is higher compared to the COT strategy which leads to the fact that the trader must be more experienced to process the multiple trading opportunities. At the beginning of the week we had two open positions in our portfolio, namely in feeder cattle and in gasoline. During the week we closed these positions. We also had a trade in corn and at the end of this week we entered a new position in feeder cattle. In total the performance of the champion strategy in this week was -$14,311. Let’s have a look at the trades that produced this result. The first trade is a trade in gasoline. As you can see the strong uptrend was available. We made good money in the past with this market. As you can see the first trade was very successful. We’ve speculated on a trend continuation and on Monday unfortunately we were stopped out of this market. The price went further to the downside and now the correction is very deep. In the next week we want to observe the markets to derive how they’re going to behave. Our trade in the meat markets was the feeder cattle trade. As you can see we awaited the trend reversal to the upside. We entered the market and then we were stopped out. After we’ve seen that the price didn’t fall further more and even an inside bar occurred we used this chance to re-enter the market and as you can see the price went up, went down, and then went up again. We have a proper stop-loss management and our target price is clear. Our capital is protected and the chances are good for this trade to work out. The next market is interesting. It’s corn and as you can see we were immediately stopped out when we firstly tried to enter this market. An outside bar appeared and we used that outside bar to determine our target price. This is a purely technical method. We re-entered this market and the price went into our direction and as you can see our target price was exactly touched. It is only possible to take profits this precisely if you use a target order. With this trade we made good money.
Now let’s have a look at our weather trading strategy. Here we combine COT data with fundamental extreme weather analysis. The trades that we’re selecting in this strategy are long term. As you can see from the trades that we realized in this week we made a total profit of +$4,400 in this strategy. That means we reached a new all-time high. We currently have a couple of open positions in our portfolio that constitute an accounting loss. The trades in our portfolio are mainly commodity stocks and a trade in Cocoa. Let’s have a look at the trades in detail. The first trading idea was based on the idea to trade the Atlantic hurricane season this year. We selected two commodity stocks that you can see here and by protecting our accounting profit we were stopped out in the last week and made a total gain in these trades. The next trading idea is based on the drought period in the United States. As you can see we selected three stocks. Here you can see that the price for all these three stocks went down. On this chart you can see the reason: the black line is the S&P 500 and the coloured price graphs are our commodity stocks and you can clearly see that our stocks have relative strength compared to the total market. Nevertheless the total market has drawn down our commodity stocks as well. We’ve shown to you our trading plan for these commodity stocks in the last trading report already. The plan is to hold our commodity stocks until the release of the quarterly report of the second quarter. Then we will draw our conclusions and if everything looks good and according to the plan we want to hold the positions until the end of the third quarter. Our third trading idea is also based on the drought period but here we had the idea to trade chlorine stocks. We selected three chlorine stocks and the prices of these stocks went down as you can see here. Again compared to the S&P 500 which is the black line our stocks previously have shown relative strength which was a great indication. However the federal reserves increased the interest rates and thus the total market went down and also have drawn down our commodity stocks. The plan is the same as for the other commodity stocks. We want to wait until the end of the second quarter report to see the effects of the hot summer and then we will decide what to do with these positions. And the last trade which is very interesting is the trait in cocoa. On this slide you can see the results of our intensive research in cocoa. You can pause the video and read through the details. We shared the information on coco with our coaching program participants and now let’s have a look what happened. On the daily chart you can see that the low of cocoa has been reached and quickly after that the price went up and took our entry position into a real position. This is the power of combining weather analysis with COT data. As the previous trend was a downtrend we will manage this position with an aggressive stop-loss management.
Now let’s have a look at the CRB index as usual. This is the commodity price index and last week there was a correction week. We’ve also seen that in individual commodity markets that corrected. We now expect to see a further correction period. We’ve drawn it in that chart. What does that imply for reality? How does that affect our trade selection for the coming weeks? Well, we are already active in a short sugar position and for the coming weeks we want to diversify our portfolio in long and short trades. It will be a mixture of both and that’s the plan for the coming weeks.