Our Futures Trading Results. Week 22 2022
Our results of the week
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So let’s start with the trading report. In this week we made a total gain of $2,505 profits. With this amount we made a new all-time high across all our accounts. That’s the fourth time in a row that we made an all-time high and we are very proud about that.
As always let’s start with our first COT strategy. In this strategy we derive our buy and sell signals on the weekly chart based on COT data and other indicators as well. On the daily chart we use market technique to find entry opportunities. We started into the week with a portfolio that consisted of one open position, namely eight long contracts in Lean Hogs. At the end of this week we have an empty portfolio. Let’s have a look at the individual trades. First market: Lean Hogs. On the weekly chart as you can see we received a buy signal. This buy signal appeared in the weekly trend direction. As you can see the seasonal trend was not confirming our buy signal because it has a decreasing tendency however we decided to enter this market on the daily chart. As you can see there was high volatility in this market and because of that we were unfortunately stopped out with a loss. However if a re-entry opportunity appears we will be eager to enter this market again. In this week this market brought us a loss of -$7,600. Our next trade was in the Canadian Dollar. Here you can see that on the weekly chart we received a buy signal around the same level as previous buy signals. As you can see the market moves in a range and at the lower range the buy signal appeared. So for us it was important to get into the market because we expected that the price will reach the upper boundary where sell signals appeared in the past. As you can see our buy and sell signals work very well in this range market. Because of that we were very confident that our buy strategy in this market has a high probability of being successful. As you can see the seasonal trend is also confirming this buy signal as it has a positive tenancy. On this chart you can see the range market again and you can see that the price is highly probable to reach the upper boundary around the price level of 0.805. On the daily chart we waited for our entry pattern and we were triggered according to our trading plan and as you can see we exited the trade on Friday and made a total profit of +$11,760. At the end of this week we put the gain in our pocket.
Next let’s have a look at our champion strategy. This strategy is also based on COT signals however trading opportunities appear more frequently in this strategy. At the beginning of this week we had a portfolio that consisted of two open positions, namely eight long contracts in Lean Hogs as well as 12 long contracts in Rough Rice. Both positions were very well in the win. At the end of this week we are left with three open positions, namely in Cocoa, in Gold and in Lean Hogs. All these positions are long trades and currently in the loss. The weekly performance of the strategy amounts to a loss of -$2,640. In lean hogs we were also stopped out because of the high volatility. As you can see another trading opportunity appeared according to our 10 entry patterns that we have in our champions account and we entered this market again as we can see that the price trend is also increasing on the daily chart again. If you have a look at the candle bars in the past in Lean Hogs you can see that there is frequently high volatility. So in such a market it is important to be careful and have a proper risk management including a good stop-loss management. The next market is Rough Rice and as we can see the trend continuation to the upside didn’t realize. We were stopped out with a slight loss and at the moment we have fundamental weather news that currently the rice production in India is recovering from a severe drought. This news took away some of the upwards price pressure on the rice price. A potential re-entry with a long trade in the rice market would only be feasible if the trend continued to the upside. In Gold slowly but surely we see a slight trend reversal to the upside. We had a buy signal and we decided to enter this market with our long trade. This trade consists of two open contracts. The next market is Cocoa where we have a speculative trade. We made a risky entry with 21 contracts in this market. We assumed that if the price is correcting it’s going to close the gap that appeared on Tuesday. Because of that we placed our stop-loss order at the low from Monday which is the bar that appeared before the gap. There are two scenarios that are probable for the next week. First scenario is that the price opens with a gap to the upside, obviously that would be great news for our trade. The other scenario is that on Monday the price overcomes the low from Friday. In this case we would exit the position.
Our third trading strategy is the weather trading strategy. This strategy combines COT data with extreme weather news. The weekly result for this strategy amounts to +$985 for this week. We started to trade this account with a starting capital of $100,000 on the 1st of December in the last year. The account’s current value is $175,000. We made a total net profit of +$67,036. As a result in half a year we made + 67% in the strategy. Let’s have a look at our current trading ideas. The first trading idea was based on the Rice market. In India we’ve seen export stops and droughts. Because of that an increasing Rice price was highly probable. On this map you can see that the drought period in India has been weakened by the rainfall that finally appeared in the country. The price reacted and corrected and because of that we exited this market and made this week’s +$985 profits. In total the three trades in this market brought us a profit of +$8,250. Three trades - three winners. The next trading idea was based on the Atlantic hurricane season. For this year as you can see from this chart the total amount of hurricanes in the US is above the average compared to previous years. Accordingly we selected two commodity stocks to trade them, first one being SWN and the second one being RRC. As you can see both trades developed very well, however now we want to protect our profits. The hurricane season is now at its peak and because of that the prices of these stocks should increase rather than decrease. In our weather trading plan we show our clients where we put our stop to protect our position. Our next trading idea is based on a drought period in the United States. According to the rationale we expect to see increasing fertilizer prices. For that reason we selected three stocks of fertilizer producers, the first being CF, the second being MOS, and the third being NTR. As you can see the price currently moves in a triangular form. We haven’t seen our price prediction to the upside materialize yet, however the peak of the drought period is expected to appear around the end of June or the beginning of July. For that we expect to see increasing short-term prices.
At the end let’s have a look at the CRB index as usual. As you can see the index of commodity prices increased further more. Because of that we will focus on taking long trades rather than short trades in the next week.Learn more about our free webinar