Our Futures Trading Results. Week 19 2022
Our results of the week
+6,536 profits. That’s the trading result for our commodity and futures trading according to COT data and our fundamental weather analysis in week number 19. With this week’s profit we reached a new all-time high among our accounts. We are especially proud of having reached this result and our results in the past couple of weeks because the S&P 500 has declined even more in the past week. While the stock market prices are decreasing we are making profits with our commodity trading. Welcome to InsiderWeek. In this video I’m going to show to you the trades of this week and the corresponding results.
Let’s start with the COT strategy. By using the COT data released in the commitment of traders report every week for free in the internet we derive our buy and sell signals. For that we also use indicators and on the daily chart we look for the right timing to enter trades. With this strategy we started into the week with an empty portfolio and at the end of this week we have two open positions in our portfolio, namely eight long contracts and Cotton and one long contract in Gasoline. Let’s have a look at the trades individually. In Cotton on the weekly chart you can see that we received a buy signal in harmony with the current weekly uptrend. We can see that the seasonal trend is decreasing however we can see that the price is very strong and the trend continues its path to the upside. On the monthly chart we can see that there is still enough space for the price to move to the upside until it reaches the high from 2011. That’s a price level that Cotton could potentially reach. On the daily chart you can see that we had a great and successful trade in Cotton a couple of weeks before. This week we used the correction that appeared to enter the market again. We are currently long in this market with 8 long contracts and we are well in the win. The next market is Gasoline. Here the COT data delivered to us a buy signal a couple of weeks ago. On the monthly chart you can see that the resistance level that was formed in 2008 has been breached again. On the daily chart you can see that we used the correction to enter this market with our long trade. We use a relative wide stop loss level and we wait for our target price to be reached.
Now let’s have a look at our champion strategy. It is based on the COT data as well but it delivers more and more frequent COT signals. Furthermore it uses 10 entry patterns which means that it gives the trader more trading opportunities. For this strategy it’s important that the trader has strong focus and that he is experienced with risk and money management. We started into the week with two open positions, namely two short contracts in Silver and seven short contracts in the 10-Year T-Notes. During the week we made another trade in Cotton and at the end of this week we have an empty portfolio because we closed all our positions. This week’s net result of the champion strategy amounts to +$6,536. Let’s have a review on the trades that produced this result. The first trade in the strategy was the 10-Year T-Note. As you can see the entry was not ideal. We were not patient enough, we should have waited for the correction to appear to take a short trade. You can see that previously the trend of this market was very bearish however now the price turned around and we were forced to exit the market with a loss. In Silver the price moved into our direction. We were very well in the win and we decided to exit the trade to counterbalance the loss from the 10-Year T-Notes. With this decision we closed the trade before the target price was reached and as you can see parts of the further move and the potential gain was lost because of that. Nevertheless it was a conscious decision to close it and we made a nice profit. The next market is Cotton. We have a position in Cotton in each account. Because of that we decided to close the position at the end of this week to not hold an open position over the weekend and thus we could reduce our risk. However we still expect Cotton price to increase further more and we will look for re-entry possibilities.
The next account is our weather trading account. Here we analyze fundamental weather trading news and combine them with the COT data. These trades are usually long-term trades. We are currently long in two commodities, namely in Cotton and in Rough Rice. We furthermore have long open positions in commodity stocks – RRC and SWN. Let’s have a look at the trades individually. As you can see from this US map the warm weather front moves from the region where Cotton is cropped to the region where Corn is cropped and we can already see that the markets have reacted to that. On the daily chart of Cotton you can see that our past trade was very successful. Because we expect that the Cotton price is furthermore increasing we use this correction here to enter this market. Again let’s have a look at the news. We can see a couple of news that India has already banned parts of the grains export. This news relates especially to Wheat and Rice and for those markets we can assume that there is going to be upwards price pressure. On the chart from Rice you can see that we have this market on our watchlist for a long time already. We had an extremely successful long trade in the past in this market and we used the correction to enter this market again. We are currently long in this market with four contracts and we expect to see a further trend continuation to the upside. In our weather trading strategy one event can’t be missed and that’s this year’s atlantic hurricane season. We analyzed this event very carefully and we selected two commodity stocks, one of them being RRC and the other one being SWN. We plan to hold both positions until September.
Now let’s have a look at the CRB index as usual. That’s a commodity price index and we can see that the price moves around the resistance level from the past. We can see that it hasn’t breached through that level yet. For now we expect a further trend continuation to the upside because of the previous strong bullish trend. For the next week we consider both in our portfolio long and short trades, maybe a slightly larger amount of long trades on our watchlist.
HERE you can find a summary of all individual trades and a comparison of the results of both strategies:Our track record from 2014 to present
Thank you for your attention and we wish you successful trades for the next trading week.
Max Schulz and
the InsiderWeek team