Our Futures Trading Results. Week 16 2021

Summary:

  • Our week in the markets using COT Strategy: +$10,214
  • Our week in the markets using Champion COT Strategy: +$4,082

 

 

A gain of +$10,214. That’s the trading result from our commodity and futures trading according to COT data in week number 16. Hello and welcome to InsiderWeek. In this video we are showing to you our trades from this week and the corresponding results. By realizing this week’s gain we were able to reduce our drawdown which is now -$23,201. Furthermore as we will look at our open positions in this video you will see that our open equity looks very attractive. Thus we have good chances to exit our drawdown period in the coming weeks. 

For our COT strategy we started into the week with a portfolio that consisted of 3 open positions. First of all coffee where we’ve been in the loss and secondly sugar where we’ve been in the win and thirdly silver where we were roughly at break even. During the week we closed our position in sugar and two more positions were added namely two long contracts in gasoline and five long contracts in soybean oil. Let’s have a look at each trade one by one.

First market sugar: On the weekly chart we received a buy signal in the weekly trend direction. We like those kind of signals because they work very well. On the daily chart we waited for an entry pattern. It appeared. We were triggered according to the plan and we closed the position with a gain of +$10,214. 

Next trade coffee: Here we received on the weekly chart a buy signal that was not confirmed by the seasonal trend. However we decided to make this trade because further data analysis made this trade very attractive. On the daily chart we waited for the right timing. We were triggered. Our stop loss was wide enough because we expected a correction and that indeed happened. After the correction price moved well in our direction we saw a strong Friday and thus our accounting profit is now at approximately +$10,000.

Next market silver: On the weekly chart you can see that there’s a range market. We receive a buy signal as we’re receiving many buy signals in the metal markets at the moment. But we’ve chosen for silver and to go long here. On the daily chart you can see that we were triggered according to our plan. Shortly after that price moved against us. Then we saw a strong Wednesday and then there was this sell off happening and now we’re looking at open equity of +/- 0. We don’t like to see these kind of moves because usually we are awaiting the right timing and then the market moves into our direction. That’s why we’re now thinking about closing this trade because other markets are also very attractive. By closing this market we could open up our risk capital for other markets. As always we will show how we’ll proceed in our trading group.

Next market gasoline: Gasoline didn’t develop as good as expected but we are looking at a portfolio here that is consisting of many positions. Our strategy is not that all trades must perform individually. We have no preference for which specific market is going to perform but we want to see our portfolio performing. That happens by realizing profits correctly and conducting the risk management in a proper way and thus the performance of the overall portfolio is the most important thing. On the daily chart we were triggered according to our plan after our entry pattern appeared. In our market analysis we are examining entry patterns and our indicators to derive the right timing. So in this market we were triggered according to the plan but price moved against us. When looking at the price action you can see that in this uptrend there have been such corrections in the past. In fact we expected that correction to happen and we put our stop wide enough but there are other markets at the moment that are also very attractive and are delivering attractive signals thus we need to decide whether we will manage this trade further or to exit it very soon. As always we will discuss how we proceed through our trading plans in our trading group.

Next market soybean oil: We received a buy signal and as you can see prior to that there was a strong uptrend on the weekly chart. We’ve seen a correction and after that there was our buy signal delivered from COT data and this speaks in favor of a trend continuation. So on the daily chart we decided to go long according to our standard entry pattern. We were triggered and the price moved into our direction immediately and it moved into our direction every day. Friday was a bit weak but we’re expecting a trend continuation. Nevertheless we are protecting our accounting profit.

Let’s have a look at the results from our second strategy the so-called champion strategy. As you can see we started into the week with 2 open positions namely cotton and soybean oil where we had long contracts and at the beginning of the week we were comfortably in the win in both positions. We closed this week’s portfolio with 3 open positions namely in cocoa where we entered into the market during the week with 5 long contracts we still have our cotton long contract and we added 1 long contract in copper. So during the week we closed soybean oil and interestingly we went long into cocoa for the second time. You can see the cocoa trades here. We went long for the first time and then there was this strong sell off on Tuesday. We were stopped out because we used a very close stop here and then we decided for another long trade with 5 contracts because the setup is still active and we are expecting price to increase. And that’s the reason behind our two-fold coco trade.

On this page you can see the last 5 trades of our champion strategy. We closed soybean oil with a gain of +$6,212 and we closed cocoa with a loss of -$2,130. That gave us a total weekly result of +$4,080. 

As always a few words on CRB index as usual. As announced last week we expected this price move to be a correction and indeed the week was strong. The trend continuation for commodities happened. We also saw this price action in our positions. We saw many commodity prices increasing further in the weekly trend direction and we can see the second strong week in a row. Here the commodity price index is crossing a resistance at the moment and thus we’re expecting even higher commodity prices to come in the future.

 

HERE you can find a summary of all individual trades and a comparison of the results of both strategies:

 

 

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That’s it from our side this week! See you all at the next trading plan next Sunday!

 

Max Schulz and
the InsiderWeek team