Our Futures Trading Results. Week 15 2022

Summary:

  • Our week in the markets using COT Strategy: +$40,011
  • Our week in the markets using Champion COT Strategy: -$6,903
  • Our week in the markets using Weather Analysis: +$14

 

 

+$33,122 profits. That’s the trading result from our commodity and futures trading according to COT data and our extreme weather analysis in week number 15. Welcome to InsiderWeek. In this video I’m going to show to you our trades of this week and the corresponding results. 

In our COT strategy we started into the week with a portfolio that consisted of two open positions, namely seven long contracts in Cotton and five long contracts in Coffee. During the week we closed both of these positions. Let’s have a look at them. In Coffee we received a buy signal in the weekly trend direction. Although the seasonal trend is decreasing for the next weeks the price made new highs which means that there’s relative strength in the market. On the daily chart you can see that we traded this market twice. At the first time we were stopped out with a loss of above $10,000. We saw that the trend continued to the upside and we entered this market using our entry pattern and you can see that that was a very successful trade. With this trade alone we made a total profit of +$39,355. We are happy about this gain and we are pleased to see that our trading plan worked out. Next market: Coffee. In Coffee we received a buy signal in the weekly trend direction. Seasonal trend confirms it by slightly increasing. On the current weekly chart you can see that the last week was a sell week. We can also see that the price touched the resistance level that we draw in the chart. As you can see on the daily chart we waited for a trend reversal. The trend reversal happened and we used the correction to enter the market. On Monday as expected the price showed an impulse bar to the upside and then there was another one. After we’ve seen those in impulse bars we adjusted the stop loss and put it close to our entry level. As you can see afterwards the price turned to the downside and we were stopped out with a total gain of +$656. 

Now let’s have a look at our champion strategy. At the beginning of the week our portfolio was pretty full, we had four positions, namely long contracts in Cotton, in the S&P 500 E-mini, in Lean Hogs, and in Coffee. At the end of this week we are left with two open positions, namely in Lean Hogs and in Heating Oil. In this week we had a net loss in the champion strategy, namely -$6,903. Let’s have a look at the individual trades. In the S&P 500 E-mini we saw that there was a strong seasonal trend. According to the plan we waited for the correction to appear and used it to enter the market. As you can see the price turned to the downside and didn’t develop as expected. Because of that we were stopped out with a loss and we don’t plan to re-enter this market. The coffee trade in the champion strategy is the same as in the COT strategy. We adjusted our stop-loss after we’ve seen the impulse wave and we were stopped out and our capital was protected. In Cotton the trade was different from the COT strategy we participated in the loss trade however we didn’t re-enter it in the champions strategy. In Lean Hogs we were triggered according to the plan and the price went to the upside. However we can see that the price didn’t push through the resistance level on the upside. We won’t stay in this market for a long time and we want to close the position very soon. In Heating Oil we were triggered according to our plan, the price moved in our direction as expected, and we adjusted the stop loss. For Monday we expect the market to open with a gap and if we see that we want to take profits and close the position.

In our trading account based on weather trading we are analyzing the fundamental news that affect commodities. In this week we made a tiny profit of +$14. However we hold two open positions, namely in Lean Hogs and in Rough Rice and both positions are well in the win. The market that produced the little gain was Coffee where we conducted the same trade as in both our other strategies. In Lean Hogs we are currently in the market with two long contracts. We won’t stay in this trade for a long time and we want to realize the gains in the next week. In Rough Rice we based our trade on the fundamental analysis of Rice and we entered this mark. As you can see the impulse wave was into our direction. More Chinese cities prepare lockdowns. These news may further push our long trade in Rough Rice.

At the end let’s have a look at the CRB index – the commodity price index – as usual. As you can see in this week the price continued the uptrend creating a new high. That means for us that we are going to look for new entry possibilities on the long side of the markets.

HERE you can find a summary of all individual trades and a comparison of the results of both strategies:

 

 

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As always be aware of the risk because risk management is the key to success in trading.

Max Schulz and
the InsiderWeek team