Our Futures Trading Results. Week 12 2021

Summary:

  • Our week in the markets using COT Strategy: -$1,620
  • Our week in the markets using Champion COT Strategy: $0

 

 

Hello and welcome to Insider Week. My name is Max Schultz and in this video I am going to present you the trading results from our Commodity and Futures trading according to COT data in week number 12. In week 12 we had a total loss of -$1,620. Although it looked very well in the middle of the week for us and we were faced with the opportunity to cut our drawdown in half. We nevertheless had to close this week with a loss. It has been a crazy week and let’s have a look at what happened for our first strategy the so-called COT strategy. We closed week 11 with a portfolio consisting of one open position which was cocoa where we were short 10 contracts. We closed week 12, however, with two positions still 10 short contracts in cocoa and two short contracts in coffee. Let’s have a look at each trade during the week individually.

First of all, we had a buy signal in soybeans but we decided to trade soybean oil. That’s because we have seen a better trend in the weekly chart. Also on the daily chart we can see that we decided to go along at the correction. We have been triggered according to our plan and we have seen a thrust in our direction. The next day opened with a gap and our accounting profit at that time was almost $17.000 along with the good numbers in our cocoa trade. It looked like we could cut our drawdown in half but trading never gets boring. We had to give up the accounting profit on Thursday. We decided to save the position by exiting at any opening price on Friday with a market order. Thus in the end we are looking now at a loss of -$1,620 so to summarize we’re coming from $16,800 in the win to a loss of $1,620. These kind of things happen in trading letting go past gains is something that needs to be handled by traders. That is basically one disadvantage of swing trading one must learn to let go accounting profits. Indeed, this would have been a nice gain to our portfolio but the term ‘would’ doesn’t work in trading. It’s about the weekly result here that’s why it is important to remain patient and accept what happened. That mindset must be developed. If not, it could get problematic to make further traits or if one becomes psychologically biased, mistakes become quite probable. That’s why it’s important to have the mindset that in swing trading one needs to let go accounting profits.

Next market – cocoa where we received a sell signal as explained in the previous video. We’ve seen a resistance where price bounced back, thus we speculated for a short trade on the daily chart. You can see that we have been triggered and after we’ve been triggered, price moved into our direction. At the moment, price is below the entry level, thus we reduce the risk by moving the stop to break even. Furthermore, we’re expecting that the price is going to reach our target price. The next market we decided to trade was coffee. Here we received a sell signal in the weekly chart. On the daily chart we waited for our entry pattern. We have been triggered but at the moment price moves against us. Our stop is not far away from the last bar’s high but we’re expecting this to be a small correction and that price will move down into our COT signal direction, such that we are going to make profits.

Let’s now have a look at our second COT strategy, the so-called champion strategy. We were closing our portfolio in week 11 with one position in cocoa which was three short contracts and we closed week 12 with one additional position, namely three short contracts in 30-year bonds. This actually has been a re-entry possibility. We participated in a short trade last week as well where we realized again and this was a nice opportunity to re-enter the market and furthermore participate in this short trend. The weekly result in our champion account is zero. That’s because we maintained our open position from the beginning of the week and we’ve added one additional position as well we didn’t close anything. So at the moment we are looking at a nice accounting profit. We are well in the win, however, as we have seen in the soybean oil trade nothing is sure here. We will need to wait and evaluate the final result once we close the positions, one short look at all the futures as you can see.

We have many more Futures markets on the sides that are relatively weak compared to the futures on the side that are relatively strong. This could indicate a correction in the commodity market that is also confirmed by CRB Index. On the weekly chart we can see the second lower low in a row this week which means we are facing a correction or trend reversal. We will see that in the next weeks but that’s also what we’re seeing in the markets. Nevertheless, we’re well prepared for both scenarios correction and trend reversal because we’re receiving buy and sell signals. We can see more trading opportunities at the moment. The trading frequency is increasing and our timing works well. Again, now it’s important not to miss out any trading opportunities according to our rules and to be aware of the risk. Thus it’s just a question of time when exactly we are getting out of our drawdown period. That’s it from our side this week.

A little announcement: We are going on a vacation for two weeks. It means that in the next two weeks we are going to post the trading results only. You will find them in our blog.

Anybody interested is very welcome to find our trading results in the next two weeks on our blog. Thanks for your attention and see you all in two weeks until then we wish you all many successful traits and as always be aware of the risk and the diversification because these two are the key to success in trading.

 

HERE you can find a summary of all individual trades and a comparison of the results of both strategies:

 

 

☆☆☆☆

 

We wish you a successful trading week! See you next time!

 

Max Schulz and
the InsiderWeek team