Our Futures Trading Results. Week 10 2022

Summary:

  • Our week in the markets using COT Strategy: +$0
  • Our week in the markets using Champion COT Strategy: -$8,550
  • Our week in the markets using Weather Analysis: +$0

 

 

-$8,550 loss. That’s the trading result from our commodity and futures trading according to COT data as well as our weather analysis in week number ten. Welcome to InsiderWeek. In this video I’m going to show to you our trades of this week and the corresponding results. 

In our first COT strategy we started into the week with an empty portfolio. At the end of this week our portfolio is still empty. Due to the geopolitical circumstances at the moment in company with the uncertainties and uncalculatable risks we did not take any new trades during the week in the COT strategy one. Accordingly we remained patient and we stayed on the sideline. 

Let’s discuss the market on our watch list which is Sugar. On the weekly chart you can see that we received a buy signal and because the sugar market is the least affected by the geopolitical circumstances at the moment we decided to put Sugar on the watchlist. On this chart you can see the Brazilian Real which increased and we can see that Sugar went into a small correction. As the Brazilian Real is highly correlated with Sugar we expect to see higher Sugar Prices. On the daily chart we can see the small correction very clearly. As you can see our indicator down here indicated the correction very well and we aim to use this correction to enter the Sugar market. 

Our second strategy is the so-called champion strategy which is based on the COT data and which we used in the past years to participate in the world trading championship. During the week we made one trade namely in Sugar. At the end of this week this Sugar trade brought us a loss of -$8,550. Let’s have a look at the trade. As you can see we entered this market very shortly after the correction started. One characteristic of this champion strategy is that we don’t wait long to enter markets and we don’t keep in the markets very long to take profits very quickly. In this case our stop loss was not very far away and we were stopped out on the next day after we were triggered. At the moment we can see that the timing was not very right and we could use this correction to re-enter the market again.

Our third trading strategy is based on our extreme weather analysis. We use fundamental events that affect the commodity markets based on weather analysis to make money. Due to the geopolitical circumstances this week we did not take any trades in the weather trading account. The political news can lead to high volatility in the markets and if we are on the wrong side of the market that can hurt our account. Because of the unpredictability of the political news we decided to stay on the sideline and keep patient in the last week.

When we have a look at the distribution of the past week’s returns we can see that many commodity markets went into a correction. We expected that because many markets were overbought and because of the high volatility which implies a bad risk reward ratio it was a wise decision to keep on the sideline and don’t take any trades in these markets that are difficult to trade at the moment. Nevertheless the fundamental data implies that the markets are continuing their path to the upside and that entries can be successful soon again. From the CRB index which is the index for commodity prices we can see the strong increase two weeks ago. In the last week we could see that the price went down again which is completely normal for such overbought markets. If the markets are going to stabilize we want to take the correction to use it as entry possibilities. We will look for entry possibilities but as soon as the news and the amount of news increases again we need to be more passive again. That’s our plan for the next week. 

HERE you can find a summary of all individual trades and a comparison of the results of both strategies:

 

 

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For the next week we wish you much patience and please be aware of the risk because risk management is the key to success in trading.

Max Schulz and
the InsiderWeek team